Though its $1.4 trillion red-ink result was mostly known well ahead of its final issuance, the Treasury Department either conveniently got its year-end accounting work done in time for a Friday afternoon release of the final Monthly Treasury Statement, or held it until that time. Last year's report was released on Wednesday, October 15.
The final statement shows receipts of $2.105 trillion, "outlays" of $3.522 trillion, and a "deficit" of $1.417 trillion. That is $962 billion higher that last year's "deficit" of $455 billion.
The terms "outlays" and "deficit" are in quotes for reasons I will explain in this post.
There is good news and bad news about the reporting on the results by the Associated Press's Martin Crutsinger. The good news is that after at least three months of obsessing over how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were contributing to the massive increase in this year's "deficit" compared to fiscal 2008 when they have been almost completely if not totally irrelevant (here, here, and here at NewsBusters; here, here, and here at BizzyBlog), Crutsinger correctly dropped them from the discussion. Of course, that means he was repeatedly wrong to cite those wars or even defense spending as a whole as a contributing factor in the first place. But don't wait by the phone for Martin's apology.
The bad news follows.
First, Crutsinger didn't explain that an accounting change having nothing to do with fiscal frugality was probably the major reason why the "deficit" came in lower than the $1.75 trillion he cited as the administration's February prediction. Additionally, though it was an ideal opportunity to do so, he didn't inform readers that the reported "deficit" is nowhere near the amount by which the national debt increased during the fiscal year.
Here are key paragraphs from Crutsinger's report that apparently go final until Saturday morning:
The federal budget deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion as the recession caused tax revenues to plunge while the government was spending massive amounts to stabilize the financial system and jump-start the economy.
The imbalance for the budget year ended Sept. 30, more than tripled last year's record. The Obama administration projects deficits will total $9.1 trillion over the next decade unless corrective action is taken.
As a portion of the economy, the budget deficit stood at 10 percent, the highest since World War II, according to government data released Friday.
President Barack Obama has pledged to reduce the deficit once the Great Recession ends and the unemployment rate starts falling. But economists worry the government lacks the will to make the hard political choices to cut spending and raise taxes to get control of the imbalances.
Administration officials noted that as large as the $1.42 trillion deficit was, it had been projected to be even higher. The administration forecast a $1.75 trillion deficit when Obama sent his first budget proposal to Congress in February, a figure that had been trimmed to $1.58 trillion in an administration update issued in August.
The lower figures reflected in large part the fact that spending from the $700 billion bailout package turned out to lower than originally anticipated.
.... Failure to curb runaway deficits could trigger a financial train wreck that would push interest rates and inflation higher, and send the dollar crashing if foreigners suddenly started dumping their holdings of Treasury securities.
I must cite a few things before getting to Crutsinger's key omissions:
- Crutsinger's first sentence acts as if the government really has given the economy a "jump-start." American workers who have continued to lose jobs to the tune of hundreds of thousands per month are surely wondering where the evidence of a jump-start is.
- Note the reference to "the Great Recession," capitalized, in the fourth paragraph. Though I have seen usage of the term pick up elsewhere since early this year, I believe this is the first use of the term at AP, and it certainly is by Crutsinger when covering Treasury's monthly report. I believe this is an attempt to establish a historical marker, in the optimistic hope that it will be understood as the Great Bush Recession, especially if it is ultimately declared to have ended during the third quarter. Readers at BizzyBlog know that pinning the recession solely, or even mostly, on George W. Bush, who nonetheless contributed to it, is absurd. I have been saying so since early July 2008.
- Also note the reference to "hard political choices" and "raising taxes" that same paragraph. I sense that the press is getting ready to tell us, "Oh gosh, he really hates to do it, but Dear Leader is going to have to raise taxes on everyone."
- His opening mention of the year-over year decline in receipts understates its significance and incorrectly blames it entirely on the recession. Part 2 will deal with that matter separately.
Now to Crutsinger's two big omissions.
The "deficit" is as "low" as it is because effective with April's Monthly Treasury Statement, the government began accounting for its "investments" in financial institutions, General Motors, Chrysler, and other entities on a "net present value" (NPV) basis. In other words, even though lots of money has been laid out, that money is not part of "outlays." At the time of the change, the impact was to reduce "outlays" through March 2009 by over $175 billion.
Since then, the government has laid out additional billions first to get GM and Chrysler to limp into bankruptcy, followed by even more billions to help the companies emerge from it. NPV accounting requires you to write down such "investments" to their realizable value. I haven't seen any evidence that any such writedowns, which would serve to increase the reported deficit, have occurred, even though almost no one believes that Uncle Sam will ever see a full return of all of the money has thrown at the two companies. If someone is aware of a writedown, I'd like to know about it.
The bottom line is that, even after considering repayments of TARP funds made by some banks, the reported "deficit" would have been a lot higher than $1.42 trillion had the government not moved to NPV accounting. Though NPV has its place, it never belongs in what it supposed to be a cash flow statement.
The second omission has to do with a problem that I have begun calling the "unreported deficit." It has admittedly been present for years, but it has ballooned to gigantic levels during the past two fiscal years.
In normal bookkeeping, you would expect the change in the national debt net of cash assets to be equal to the amount of surplus or deficit reported. But the U.S. government doesn't do things the normal way, and hasn't been since LBJ made Social Security part of a "unitary" budget in the 1960s. For the past 20-plus years, the reported "deficits" were lower than the increase in the national debt largely because the rest of the government has raided Social Security surpluses and spent the money on other things. This year, though, the Troubled Asset Recovery Program (TARP) and other items were added into the "off-budget" mix.
The past two years' unreported deficits have been bigger than the reported "deficits" by stunning amounts (go here to verify the numbers that follow):
- During fiscal 2008, the reported "deficit" was $455 billion, while the national debt increased by $1.017 trillion ($10.025 trillion minus $9.008 trillion) -- a $562 billion difference between reported and actual.
- During fiscal 2009, the reported "deficit" was $1.417 trillion, while the national debt increased by $1.885 trillion ($11.910 trillion minus $10.025 trillion)-- a $468 billion difference between reported and actual.
These differences are now so big that they really shouldn't be ignored by reporters genuinely interested in informing readers and viewers about Uncle Sam's true fiscal situation.
Crutsinger, of course, did ignore it. I expect that he and the vast majority of his establishment media colleagues will continue to do the same. From this point on, I don't plan to, especially given that even the reported national debt doesn't fully reveal the true extent of this nation's financial peril.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters




















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Excellent job in ferreting
October 19, 2009 - 22:38 ET by jdhawkExcellent job in ferreting out the real deficit numbers!
Nevertheless, this "reporter" didn't just ingnore these facts. He purposefully obsfucated them to slant the report in favor of this administration. He did the opposite to the past administration. One that doesn't align with his political ideology.
This isn't a "reporter." It is a socialist propagandist that is simply lying to make obama and this left wing congress not smell as bad as they should.
the 3 times more than any
October 20, 2009 - 01:52 ET by notonmywatchthe 3 times more than any previous stat is a lot more important than the number. the nets are fine with printing that number on the screen because it means nothing to most people.
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Well they are lower this year
October 20, 2009 - 02:58 ET by raiseyaCompared to the projected 1.75 trillion for FY ended 2009. But FY 2010 has been increased to 1.4 trillion for 2010. This means that THE TWO YEAR PROjeETION IS NOT SUBStantrially different fron the original numbers. And projected numbers for the rest of the years until 2019 show deficits in the range of 1Trillion per year through 2019. Each year adds approximately 10% to our national debt. That assumes that no major changes in interest rate here occur.
By 2019 our national debt load will approach 100 % of our GDP. These are WWII levels of debt load.
By 2019 our national debt
October 20, 2009 - 03:38 ET by PaarlBy 2019 our national debt load will approach 100 % of our GDP. These are WWII levels of debt load.
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exactly what the Obamabots were aiming for...I heard/read discussions of this level of debt as maintainable......as domestic savings will go up and a lower dollar will mean more exports and less consumer expenditure for exports and besides our allies in Europe have debt levels at these percentages of gnp...IGNORING I think state/local debt ......so I expect no great effort by the Obamabots to lower debt except of course thru reductions in defense outlays.....
Paarl of Rhodesia
Martin Gross said it best
October 19, 2009 - 23:13 ET by legacyrepublicanI caught Martin Gross' interview with Pat Robertson today by chance.
I thought his best line was that Obama was a "48 year old college student going on 19."
Coupled with this story here, the interview takes on a whole new urgent purpose if it didn't have it already.
We need the Balance Budget Amendment ASAP!!!!
You can bet Uhbama doesn't
October 19, 2009 - 23:21 ET by HockeyKidYou can bet Uhbama doesn't put his kids to bed with stories about how he's selling their futures down the river. It'd be pure poetry to see them grow up and turn Republican when they find out just how badly their daddy raped and pillaged their country.
"Beauty is only skin deep, but liberal's to the bone." - me
By that point, Soros will have whisked the Obama's off...
October 19, 2009 - 23:30 ET by R D Helm...to some private island somewhere in the South Pacific.
-And we will be left holding the bananas.
-Dave
Our elected representatives have failed us.
This country has been
October 19, 2009 - 23:54 ET by R D HelmThis country has been barreling down this road to financial and economic ruin for six-plus decades now.
Both political parties have helped to bring us to this sorry point.
The left has been plotting the demise of America as we know it since before the War of Northern Aggression even took place, and has managed to garner help from many centrists along the way.
All Obama has done is stepped in and compensated for the Reagan years, as well as a couple of the Bush years, by hooking up the nitrous oxide and thus accelerating our rendezvous with destiny by a factor of four.
Our tax revenues are sinking like the Titanic, our currency is on the brink of being shunned by the rest of the world, our economy is very rapidly crumbling, and soon that is going to adversely affect our ability to project military power much beyond our very borders, if even that.
We have a "president" who is an empty suit, a congress that has turned its back on the American people, and an electorate that was largely educated by Postal Service rejects.
I am sorry, but this sh*t isn't going to be "fixed" in 2010.
-Dave
Our elected representatives have failed us.
You're right R.D., but the
October 20, 2009 - 07:15 ET by mattmYou're right R.D., but the blame is mainly on the media and the schools. The media will complain about the budget when a republican is president and they will will blame republicans for putting the succeeding democrat administration in the position of having to expand the deficit to "save" the economy.
The schools - run by liberal brainwashers - put out economically illiterate people by the thousands.
The GOP's fault lies in going along to get along...the leaders of the disaster are the libs.
mattm,
October 20, 2009 - 20:43 ET by R D HelmYou know, I am really starting to wonder if I am related to Hal Lindsey.
No joke.
-Dave
Our elected representatives have failed us.
"New Math"
October 20, 2009 - 06:33 ET by mad53PAHmm,
Let me see, two carry the one equals, no no.
800 billion plus 700 billion minus 300 billion, no that won't work.
Train A leaves the station, no, no good.
Everything is fine, yea that works!!
Th
October 20, 2009 - 10:05 ET by jessieHThe longer these people stay in office, the harder it will be to fix their mess. Not one word about freezing their pay, just the elderly's. The federal government is spending our money on their friends & family, making them richer, while we go on a tighter budget. It isn't that difficult to control spending, if you care enough to do the right thing. Aparantly, they don't give a damn about controling their spending, or about the people.
AP
October 20, 2009 - 13:25 ET by east tennessee johnAP can fudge all the numbers it wants to project a favorable situation for BO and slam Bush. It changes nothing in reality except futher impacting what creditability AP has left. As that famous religious leader once said, "America's chickens are coming home to roost". Witness how oil is going to be valued at in the near future, not by dollars but by a "basket of other currencies. If we're so well off AP, why is this even being considered let alone happening, smartasses? The Emporer has no clothes and no amount of fawning white guilt media is going to change that. Enabling morons.