The Associated Press's Jeannine Aversa started off her Friday evening report on the day's economic news showing, as she and her AP colleagues have for several months, that they either don't understand very basic concepts relating to the information they're attempting to digest and convey or are deliberately reporting it inaccurately:
Pink slips piled up and jobs disappeared into thin air in May as the nation's unemployment rate zoomed to 5.5 percent in the biggest one-month jump in decades. Wall Street swooned, and the White House said President Bush was considering new proposals to revive the economy.
..... Help-wanted signs are vanishing along with jobs, so the unemployment rate is likely to keep climbing, a government report indicated .....
Make no mistake, the news was bad. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy lost 49,000 jobs in May, and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by more than it has in any single month since the mid-1980s.
But that doesn't change the fact that Aversa either was deliberately inaccurate when she wrote that "pink slips piled up," or that she doesn't comprehend the subject matter she is supposed to be covering.
Here is the chart from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), updated Friday, showing how many jobs were actually added (yes, added) in May:

(To replicate, go to this BLS link and select the top report in the "Not seasonally adjusted" column.)
The key, of course, is that the chart is not "seasonally adjusted." That is, it represents BLS's best estimate that 648,000 more Americans were actually working in May than were working in April.
The government, using commonly accepted statistical techniques, adjusts monthly data for "seasonality." Seasonally adjusting the raw data smooths reported results, and represents an attempt to give appropriate context to what happened during the previous month relative to previous years. To make a much longer story very short, the fact that the increase in the number of people actually working in May 2008 is less than was added in the previous three years seen above, plus many years previous years not seen, goes a long way towards explaining why the seasonally adjusted jobs reduction in May was 49,000.
May's news, as noted, was clearly not good, and I'm certainly not pretending otherwise. But I'm not going to sit by and watch reporters from AP and other outlets continue month after month to conjure up, out of "thin air," false images of tens of thousands of people thrown out onto the streets and employers en masse slamming their doors shut on new hires, without lodging a reality-based objection. Those things emphatically, and obviously, are not happening. As you can see above, BLS estimates that the economy has actually added 2,481,000 jobs during the past four months -- a number that, while impressive in isolation, is significantly, unfortunately, and unacceptably lower than the numbers seen in the previous three years, and most relevant years before that.
While not good enough, the February through May results do not represent "pink slips piled up," and they sure as heck don't show "jobs disappearing into thin air." Correctly written up, Aversa would have told us that May hiring was disappointingly low for the fourth straight month, leading to a net loss in seasonally adjusted jobs.
But that wouldn't have fit the sky-is-falling, ever more recession-obsessed narrative Aversa and other AP reporters have been pushing for years, even though last two quarters of GDP growth has been tepid but positive, and even though the widely-followed Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing and Non Manufacturing indices have, on a weighted average basis, showed economic expansion for the past two months.
It would also appear to be beyond AP to have any curiosity whatsoever as to why an alternative report on jobs issued by payroll and outsourcing giant ADP (full report is at this PDF file) is showing a year-to-date 554,000-job difference from BLS in seasonally adjusted private nonfarm payroll jobs.
As you can see, BLS says that 357,000 seasonally adjusted jobs have been lost so far this year, while ADP is showing 197,000 gained:

It just may be that ADP, which starts with client employee paychecks issued and projects what they see onto the rest of the economy, is picking up on hiring shifts at small and medium-sized businesses -- clearly favorable this year, especially in the Service-providing sector, according to the company -- sooner than Uncle Sam's folks at BLS, who rely on state-provided jobs and unemployment data plus various surveying techniques.
Evidence that there may be something to this premise is that in two of the past three years, BLS had to make what it calls "Comprehensive Annual Revisions" to the jobs numbers. The two revisions involved had the effect of adding at least 1.3 million jobs (Feb. 2007 - over 900,000 added; Feb 2006 - 400,000 added, per this New York Times article) that were not part of the information routinely reported in BLS's Employment Situation report (and thus went relatively ignored by the business press).
Aversa's repeated misrepresentations over "pink slips," plus other worse-than-rookie mistakes noted earlier this week in an unbylined AP report (see closing paragraphs at this NewsBusters link; at this BizzyBlog link) justify concern as to whether the folks at the self-described "Essential Global News Network" even comprehend the previous three paragraphs. But assuming for the moment that they do, I suspect that their interest in following up on the BLS v. ADP issue before about mid-2009 would be low. That's because what they find in comparing the two, and in dissecting their relative accuracy, might disturb the wire service's almost invariably shrill, too-often ignorant, and sometimes falsehood-based narrative.
So don't expect groundbreaking investigative reporting about the reliability of the monthly jobs numbers anytime soon from AP. There's a recession to keep shouting about, and if they shout long enough, they may help give us a real one -- just in time for November.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters















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Comments Policy
We're getting lots of unemployment stories lately...
June 7, 2008 - 05:06 ET by sarcasmoBut none seem to mention Shadowstats, which is desperately-needed to put them in context due to government & media spin. The second graph down on this link shows what most people have forgotten -- the Clinton Administration (IMO dishonestly) defined away "discouraged workers." Hmmm. Come to think of it, same story on inflation, M3, etc...
JMR
PS I still have yet to hear anything CLOSE to an explanation for this. Everyone I've talked to so far has NO IDEA what "credit default insurance" could possibly be, and they're all surprised by the immense size of the "market" when I show them the NYT's excellent but poorly captioned graph. (The scare-quotes around "market" stay until a free market expanation is provided.)
The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.
There is actually something
June 7, 2008 - 08:51 ET by motherbeltThere is actually something sold called "credit default insurance"? What the....
You can buy insurance that will pay off your debts is you default on them?
I've heard of Private Mortgage Insurance, but this is news to me!
The news to ME is
June 7, 2008 - 09:10 ET by sarcasmoThat this "market," which didn't exist a mere decade ago, is so huge. I can not think of any honest explanation for the size, just as I can't think of an honest explanation for the TV news media not-covering this story. This is a classic example of "we can't hide this one forever from readers & thinkers, but we can damn sure keep the scandal off TV with enough fluff stories" bias.
I'm also annoyed that the NYT insists on using the biased caption title "unregulated," because I know from personal experience that even if an "unregulated" company cooperates fully (and repeatedly) with law enforcement to stop crime, the Feds can come with guns drawn & conduct an expensive fishing expedition complete with bogus, lurid accusations on the taxpayer's dime. Besides, if these default bets aren't already "securities" under the law, then current securities regulation is meaningless. It's a big issue that's seriously threatening our country's fiscal future, and the "mainstream" news media -- especially TV -- is TOTALLY falling down on the job. Cavuto & others in the financial "journalism" field, I'm looking in your direction...
JMR
The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.
Job Growth and Immigration
June 7, 2008 - 12:58 ET by zeestephenAbsent from all national discussion of unemployment is the brutal fact that America must create - literally create - about 2 million jobs per year just to accomodate immigration and foreign workers.
In terms of "legal" immigration, off the top of my head:
In 2007 America gained 700,000 new citizens.
In 2007 America gained about 1,000,000 new legal "permanent residents" (usually the family members of new citizens).
In 2007 about 500,000 temporary work visas were granted, most of them to foreigners who compete directly with Americans for the same jobs.
The number of illegals who came to America in 2007 is not known.
However, Pew Research estimates about 5% of the total USA workforce are illegal aliens, which is about 7.5 million workers.
Since most of these immigrants, legal and illegal, have language problems or low level skills, they compete directly against America's most disadvantaged job seekers.
In the May 2008 Employment Report, almost 19% of America's teenagers cannot find work.
In Los Angeles, which has been inundated by immigrants, almost 40% of black teenagers are unemployed, and about 10% of black adults are unemployed.
As long as these massive, historically unprecedented immigration levels continue, wages and job opportunities for home grown Americans will be under relentless downward pressure.
Credit Default Swaps
June 7, 2008 - 09:57 ET by VonuIs what they are called. They let the banksters cover their bets. If the security is solid, no problem. If the security tanks, they get a pay off. For years it was a risk free way for Wall Street to bank bonuses. Plus very few securities tanked in the go-go Greenspan years.
But the derivatives market is exploding. Its size has
exceeded the $ quadrillion (500 trillion) mark. Compare this with the
annual GDP of the U.S. at about $ 14 trillion. Worse still, the
derivatives market is growing at a pace of 40 percent per annum,
roughly doubling in size every other year. This is cancer, which
mainstream economists and politicians want you to ignore.
By the way, look for continued seasonality BS to turn yesterday's ten buck a barrel increase into a overall drop in energy prices. Believe these assholes at your risk. Get Gold.
I like gold, too
June 7, 2008 - 10:40 ET by sarcasmo(Full disclosure, again. I'm involved in a business affected by the fiat money prices for gold.) But if you look at early '80s history for the previous metals price spike, gold might not be as good of a bet as silver. Everyone wants to talk about Costco rationing rice, but the real story might be that the US Mint is rationing silver coins, possibly, if words still have meaning, in violation of US law. That's not happening with gold coins (which are IMO also undervalued at the moment). Ted Butler has discussed silver prices & declining physical stock for years, as the "mainstream" media ignored him, but even if Ted's only 10% right, silver's a pretty good bet.
While I was looking around for more info this morning, I came across this letter to Moodys. I've never heard of William A. Ackman, but his words tell me the situation is even scarier than I'd imagined. The bottom line is that we're in an environment of excessive counterparty risk that's often unknown to the very people who should make it their business to know all possible risks. It can and probably will lead to cascading multiple defaults & more socialist bailouts on the backs of taxpayers' grandkids, while furthering future moral hazard (if the current financial system even survives a counterparty collapse).
JMR
The tax & spend drug war looks racist in the real world.
Understood
June 7, 2008 - 16:24 ET by VonuI use gold as a catch-all for the PM complex. Trying to explain to someone they would be better off in silver seems like work. People are more willing to be open to gold as it has retained its monetary status more than silver. But, as almost all mined gold is hoarded, almost all silver mined is consumed. Butler sees a looming silver shortage, and a chance to profit. There is no chance of a shortage of gold so the returns will be muted.
Ackman lays it all out there. But who is listening when he asks of Moody's:
Does a company deserve your highest Triple A rating whose stock price
has declined 90%, has cut its dividend, is scrambling to raise capital,
completed a partial financing at 14% interest (now trading at a 20%
yield one week later), has incurred losses massively in excess of its
promised zero-loss expectations wiping out more than half of book
value, with Berkshire Hathaway as a new competitor, having lost access
to its only liquidity facility, and having concealed material
information from the marketplace?
Outright lies from a Europen newspaper
June 15, 2008 - 16:49 ET by AlphaNumericushttp://poligazette.com/2008/06/06/us-unemployment-rate-55/
"
The New York Times reports that, for the first time in many years, the unemployment rate has hit 5.5% in the United States. The rate in which people lose their jobs is also extraordinarily high: it’s the biggest increase in more than two decades.
Not only did the unemployment rate in the US surge to 5.5% in the month of May, 49,000 jobs were also lost."
No, the jobs were not lost (see the original article for the explanation of the seasonal adjustment). Also it's was above 5.5% 3 years ago (that's not 'many' years) and considerably above (7+%!) under Clinton, even after his mucked with the methodology to bring the figure down.
Jobs "disappearing into
June 7, 2008 - 07:22 ET by motherbeltJobs "disappearing into thin air"!!!
And if Barack Obama is elected, jobs will just "appear" out of thin air, dontcha know!!
And they will all be "living wage" jobs!!
He said so!!
Before I became a regulare NB reader, I never paid much attention to where stories come from. Now when things have a certain angle, I check to see.
I'm starting to think of AP as "Alternate(-reality) Press.
More like the AP stands for
June 7, 2008 - 07:53 ET by Seabeach4348More like the AP stands for "Alternate Reality Propanga".
But, like Dan Rather said: It may be a forgery but it's still accurate...
MB,
June 7, 2008 - 09:22 ET by ThisnThat"And if Barack Obama is elected, jobs will just "appear" out of thin air, dontcha know!! "
You're 100% correct. And it will be so easy for him to do. In fact, this will be his (accurate) statement: "This month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 548,000 jobs were added last month, a testament to the changed policies we enacted from the Bush administration. Once again, Democrats show that we care about people and provide good-paying jobs, while Republicans are only interested in tax breaks for the rich".
And the MSM will never print or mention any seasonably ajusted numbers; just like now, they don't print the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. It goes to show you how biased and manipulative the MSM can be, and yet claim they are not.
_________________________________
If you can read this, thank a teacher. If it is in English, thank a Soldier. - My barber
CAP ' ENSLAVE...
June 7, 2008 - 19:57 ET by danybhoymotherbelt,
You are spot on about what will happen to the economy if Obama is elected, except the jobs won't be"...diappearing into thin air", they will be chased out of the country. Capital investment will flee as well in heavy industries, energy, & any other industry where the end product can be imported. You would think those in union leadership possisions would see what the Cap & Trade will do to the American economy. What pisses me off is McCain has been drinking the Green Kool-Aid. Green is the new red, you know.
I just wonder which group will figure out they are being screwed by the Dems first, the unions or the blacks. Both have given their undying support to the Dems, who will understand how they are being done wrong by them? As long as the Dems do not need to work to keep them in check, they will screw them blind.
"...it's still We The People, Right?" Megadeth
clearer now
June 7, 2008 - 09:55 ET by goldboughThanks for the clearing up the fact that people aren't being fired left and right. My company is continually hiring for entry-level positions and I was wondering if my company is the only one making any money. Now it makes sense.
The economy
June 7, 2008 - 13:53 ET by WR JonasThe economy being part of our national fabric is extremely suceptible to manipulation. And the left does this so well that it is no longer effective to simply point out their culpability.
Our perception of things begins to be formed from the moment we retieve the morning paper, turn on the Tv or log onto the Internet . Even my mail page has a headline box that lists the days events before I ever read a line . The daily paper is completely shaped and sanitized before I see it. There is literally no public information source which has not slanted and spun from the time a reporter or writer types it until it is consumed.
Our perception is totally controlled and our reality is so artificial that we can no more see anything than a tribe of blind cave dwellers who have lived for centuries in the dark.
We yammer on about the unfairness of it but in truth there are only a few possibilities which would shatter this construct.
Consider what it would take to alter our perception.
Actually, WR, the irony is
June 8, 2008 - 11:17 ET by dscottActually, WR, the irony is the MSM shot themselves in the foot over the bad reporting of the labor situation and recession meme. Illegals are self deporting in droves, just watch the "Not in Labor Force" numbers. They were so busy trying to talk down the economy to prime the election for the Dem Party that they forgot the number one consequence of every Recession or economic slowdown: The low wage, unskilled labor sector always takes the first hit in layoffs and slowing job creation. Given that most illegals work such jobs, the MSM is directly responsible for creating the fear psychology hindering job growth. Ironically, the MSM has made themselves the unwitting tool of Our policy to combat illegal immigration. Thank you CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN for your total embrace of OUR agenda. Bahahahahahaah bahahahaha
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, starving the poor one gallon of ethanol at a time. Fill your tank with E85 and cull a village.