Big Upward 3rd Quarter GDP Revision Expected; Only Thing Bigger Is Its Secrecy
Of course, the expectations game can be frustrating, and we won't know for sure until the actual report is released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. But there appears to be remarkably good economic news ahead. Naturally, it is getting the barest of coverage from an Old Media business press corps that seems intent on talking the economy down.
First, a week ago Monday, MarketWatch's Greg Robb, in an article entitled "Economists think U.S. can dodge recession," said the following (bolds are mine throughout this post): "The economy grew at a 3.9% rate in the third quarter, and many economists expect an upward revision above 4.5% when the government revises the data on Nov. 29."
Then, at MarketWatch.com yesterday, ("Dollar under pressure as credit fears loom"; link requires free registration), reporter Lisa Twaronite got this quote from an industry expert:
"Even though the early indications from the weekend U.S. retail sales were not as poor as feared, and [third-quarter gross domestic product] is expected to be revised significantly higher later this week, the anticipation of more write-downs and losses related to the leveraged lending-subprime and otherwise-the credit-crunch to undermine growth in [the fourth quarter] and early 2008 weighs on the dollar," wrote currency analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
Then there was this tidbit in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday (link requires subscription). You would have no idea from the WSJ article's headline ("How Rio Tinto Defensive Moves Could Make BHP Billiton Blink") that this is coming. It starts the third of three items that originally came from behind the subscription wall at BreakingViews.com:
In normal times, a U.S. recession would be a distant prospect. The biggest piece of economic data this week is the revision of third-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate, probably to a far-from-recessionary 5%. But these are not normal times.
If (emphasis "if") Thursday's actual result is 4.9% or higher, it will be the best GDP growth since the third quarter of 2003, and the second-best since the second quarter of 2000. See for yourself.
Chances are almost overwhelming that you haven't read about the predicted GDP revisions anywhere, because this Google News search on [US revised "gross domestic product"] (typed as indicated, for date range of November 19-27) shows that the predictions aren't being carried, or, as with the stories noted above, they are buried in otherwise downbeat reports.
As Larry Kudlow has often said (latest example here), it's the "Greatest Story Never Told."
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.