Worse Initial Job Loss Reports in 2000 Failed to Generate Yesterday's Negative Hyperbole

Photo of Tom Blumer.

Almost everybody within earshot of a broadcasting device yesterday knows that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a net loss of 4,000 jobs in the economy in August. Unemployment rate, at 4.6%, was unchanged.

Reporting, and misreporting, by the New York Times and Associated Press set Old Media's template for the story. Some reports, including this one by Vikas Bajaj at the Times, laid the entire onus of the loss on private companies:

Companies reduced their payrolls by 4,000 jobs in August, a sudden turnaround from the net increase of 68,000 jobs in July.

That is wrong, as the Associated Press noted:

The government actually sliced 28,000 jobs, while all private employers added 24,000, the fewest since February 2004.

The Times's Bajaj also managed to get in a mention of the BLS's downward prior-month jobs revisions to July and June. Old Media has almost always ignored similar or larger upward revisions to previous months in previous BLS reports.

While AP got the point about the private sector right, its coverage of the jobs report and the economy may have set a record for the highest ratio of scare words per net job lost. Here are a few examples from the "Fears Rise on Job Losses" report (words that especially annoyed me are in bold; items are not in the same order as they originally appeared):

  • "..... raising new fears that a deep housing slump and a painful credit crunch could push the economy into a recession."
  • "The ailing housing market and credit problems that have unhinged Wall Street are main culprits behind businesses' fresh sense of caution."
  • "The new employment figures revealed the first major crack in the job market."
  • "Under a worst-case scenario, the economy could slip into a recession this year. Earlier this year, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan had put the odds at one in three."
  • "Mindful of political backlash heading into the 2008 elections, the Bush administration and Democrats on Capitol Hill have been scrambling to help millions of homeowners at risk of losing their homes and looking for other ways to limit the fallout.
  • Factories led the way in job cuts; they slashed 46,000 positions last month, the most since July 2003. Construction companies eliminated 22,000 jobs, the most in six months. The carnage could turn out to be even worse because the report — based on information as of mid-August — doesn't capture the full brunt of the credit crisis which intensified during the month.

AP named no sectors with positive jobs growth, even though two of them had larger positive numbers than the negative ones AP identified. 60,000 jobs were added by service providers, along with 63,000 in education and health services.

As to the specter of recession, the best-kept secrets of the past week came from the Institute for Supply Management.

First, on Monday, the ISM's Manufacturing Index for August came in at 52.9%. Although the reading was a bit lower than the 53.8% recorded in July this means that the sector, representing about 12% of the economy, remained in expansion mode for the seventh month in a row, and the 49th out of the past 51 (any reading above 50% represents expansion). That 49-for-51 record is the best in over 40 years, going all the way back to December 1966, which was the the end of a 68-for-69 performance.

Then on Wednesday, the ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index, representing the other 88% of the economy, including the housing sector, came in at 55.8%, the same level as July. It was the 53rd month in a row of non-manufacturing expansion -- a record for that particular index.

So AP and the New York Times were clearly on the far side of hysteria in their reports -- the same reports that provided grist for the woe-is-us broadcasts.

Baloney. In addition to the fact that the economy as a whole is still expanding decently, as shown in the ISM reports just cited, some context to the reported job losses is in order. A NewsBusters e-mailer has come through with just that, in the form of this BLS chart showing job losses and gains since the beginning of 1997:

JobChanges1997to2007

If August's net job loss holds up or ends up worse (I expect that it will), the 47-month streak of job gains (September 2003 through July 2007) will still be longer than any other in the past 10 years.

I reviewed my e-mail archives, and found that BLS initially reported job losses in May of 2000 (-116,000, after taking out 357,000 census workers), July (-108,000), and August (-105,000).

The figures in the chart are different because BLS makes adjustments in the next two reports, and applies two comprehensive annual revisions when it has more complete data.

If you don't remember any gnashing of teeth over reports of job losses during 2000, you're not alone.

So why is an initial report of 4,000 job losses in the backdrop of a still-expanding economy cause for such alarm?

Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.

—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters


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People must wake-up

Unemployment is the first factor to be considered and it has not changed.

JDW

CFR: Chung, Riady, Hsia, Trie, Huang, Hsu, Paw... Who's looking?

 

It's big news because, 3,500 of those jobs are in the MSM LMAO

News papers are getting thinner,  MSM TV getting crummier, what's not to like about that.

Entitlement over infrastructure every SINGLE time.

 

Just kids quiting their

Just kids quiting their summer jobs and going back to school. Is it that hard to figure out?

Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!

Kids

It may be more than kids.

 

I blogged on this yesterday at my place. African-American unemployment has fallen from 8.5% to 7.7% seasonally adjusted in the past two months, and from 8.9% to 7.7% not seasonally adjusted just in August. That is significant, given that unemployment overall has ticked upward by 0.1% in the past two months.

 

It's too early to tell, but I'm wondering if there isn't a significant departure from the workforce by nervous illegals, who are on the whole being replaced by low-skilled citizens:

The August Employment Numbers

Employment Scare Tactics

Excellent point Tom.

I noticed in my local paper some ads for jobs for local employers that are known illegal alien employers.  They haven't run ads for several years.

The ususal trend for these numbers is to be adjusted later, after they get all their data.  Will we hear what the final numbers are? Guaranteed if they are worse. 

4000 jobs net?  Based on all the news reports I thought the recession was here.

“Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.”  Ronald Reagan 

Employment chart

Hey Tom (great post), I wonder, how about pulling off that graph on the same page as the chart (this BLS chart) you referenced (me being that there NB'er). What is very clear on the graph is the record, over time, of when the job losses started in the last recession. The data chart, of course spell it out - the slide began in Clinton's last year, March of 2000 (in concert with the market crash), and continued into the Bush administration. Looked like might have pulled out, except for the 9/11 whammy. Then it's easy to see a rather solid recovery (abourt 4 years worth).

In regards to how differently the media covers this (Clinton era vs Bush), I'd searched thru the LA Times - and really found little of anything pushing fear. What was obvious, was that usually associated with any bad news, was this incredible reach to insert, "but, there's also good news that might...", (My bold): 

All told, Friday's employment news underscored growing indications that the Federal Reserve Board is succeeding in guiding the economy into a "soft landing" designed to keep inflation tame without triggering a recession. The May employment report, showing the private sector losing 165,000 jobs, had raised some concerns that the nation's record nine-year expansion might be threatened. Now, however, that month looks more like an aberration to analysts. LA Times - STUART SILVERSTEIN Jul 8, 2000 - Page A-1.

Yup, losing 4,000 jobs is the end of civilization as we know it, while loosing 165,000 just raises some concerns.

And the LA Times, this time? Nothing but the bad news - not a glimmer of anything good out there - just suffering and a bleak future.

Jobs

Gary, the graph makes good points. It was a space thing, but since there's space in this comment, here it is:

JobGrowth1997to2007graph

 

It definitely shows deterioration. The graph's problem is that it's after all the revisions that have since happened, so it doesn't reflect what was being reported at the time.

 

The bigger caution here is that the fixation on the job-growth number compared to the unemployment rate. If you're going to look at job growth, you should be looking at the previous three months instead of obsessing over the current number.

Tom

Thank you very much. And yes - understand your comment on what was reported then, revised numbers, etc.

However, as for the past many years, each and every time we hear the media push, support, and not challenge the Democrats when they say, "hey we created 20 million jobs, and then Bush came in and destroyed the whole thing," we can look at the graph, hold it up and say, "No. You then lost the jobs and then Bush came in trying to pick up the pieces."

(;~> picture's worth a thousand words.

Templet: #1 Must make

Templet:

#1 Must make Clinton look good.

#2 Must make Bush look bad.

#3 Stupid sheeple won't notice.

#4 Repeat.