AP Claims That Obama 'Seems' to Be Leading in Key State Early Voting But Offers Scant Proof
I have remembered how to seem. ---King George III in "The Madness of King George."
This is a tale of two stories. The first story was an article your humble correspondent read in today's Miami Herald. The news couldn't be better for Mitt Romney because it reported that the Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters showed the former Massachusetts governor leading Barack Obama in Florida by a comfortable 51 to 45 margin. However in the same edition of the Miami Herald there is also an Associated Press story stating that Obama "seems" to be leading in early polls in key states. Based on what? Apparently based on pixie dust since virtually no real proof is offered.
First the Miami Herald report chock full of facts which shows Romney with a solid lead:
Mitt Romney has maintained a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the latest Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald poll of likely voters who favor the Republican by six percentage points.
Romney’s strengths: independent voters and more crossover support from Democrats relative to the Republicans who back Obama, according to the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
...“I’m pretty convinced Romney’s going to win Florida,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, who conducted the 800-likely voter survey from Tuesday through Thursday.
And now to the AP report in which Obama "seems" to be leading the early voting in key states including Florida.
About 3.9 million people have voted, and 43 percent were Democrats and 40 percent were Republicans. For years ago at this time, Democratic early voters had a 9 percentage point lead over Republicans.
Obama won Florida's early vote by 10 percentage points in 2008, getting 400,000 more early votes than McCain, enough to offset McCain's advantage on Election Day.
Isn't the real story here the big drop in Democrat early votes this year in Florida compared to 2012? The AP's Stephen Ohlemacher becomes even more absurd when he somehow includes Colorado in the claim that Obama "seems" to be leading in early voting:
About 1.6 million people have voted, and Republicans outnumber Democrats 37 percent to 35 percent. Those numbers are a reversal from four years ago at this time. Inevitably, Obama won the early vote by 9 percentage points in 2008, giving him a big enough cushion to win the state, despite narrowly losing the Election Day vote.
The case could also be made here that Romney is leading the early vote in Colorado yet Mr. Ohlemacher somehow thinks that Obama "seems" to be leading in that state.
The poll that dare not speak its name in this AP fantasy is the Gallup poll which reported at the end of October that Romney is leading early voting by a solid margin:
Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 46% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling.
Bottom line is that Obama is apparently way behind his early vote percentages of 2008 which is really the big story here but AP emphasizes that Obama "seems" to be leading in key state early voting.