The End of Religion? HuffPo Writer Claims Atheism Will Triumph by 2038
In the war between religion and atheism, one atheist is already predicting victory. Biopsychologist Nigel Barber, writing for the Huffington Post, argued that atheism will overtake religion by the year 2038.
Barber’s asserted that “economic development is the key factor responsible for secularization.” His argument is simple: “The basic idea is that as people become more affluent, they are less worried about lacking for basic necessities, or dying early from violence or disease. In other words they are secure in their own existence. They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural entities to calm their fears and insecurities.”
To prove this point, Barber compares the average per capita GDP of 9 most “secular” countries (Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom) with the rest of the world (using 2004 data). Since their average per capita GDP’s are 3 times higher than the world’s average, he infers that richer countries are more secular than their poorer counterparts.
Barber’s analysis is rife with false assumptions and convenient leaps in logic. He does not give a list of the countries with the highest per capita GDP – perhaps because that list includes religious countries such as the United States, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Barber ignores geography; 8 of the 9 countries he cites as "godless" are European. Barber assumes that Europe is in the vanguard of progress.
Barber even deliberately skews his data. He states that he left Estonia off his list of godless countries, dismissing it as a “formerly Communist country.” He fails to mention that officially atheistic (and poorer) countries such as North Korea and China do not figure in his analysis. The only secular countries he cites are the ones that help his case.
Barber falsely conflates all religious people with religious fundamentalists. He only briefly mentions that “some serious scholars” believe “religious fundamentalists will outbreed the rest of us,” before dismissing religious men and women as “tiny minorities of the global population” who will “become even more marginalized as global prosperity increases and standards of living improve.”
But the rapid increase of Islam in European countries casts doubt on Barber’s analysis. Barber argues that religious minorities assimilate into secular society once they attain economic success – an assumption that Islam confounds.
Barber also ignores the fact secularist countries such as Japan have negative population growth, and face economic disaster because of their inability to replace their populations. The fertility rates for all of the secularist countries he cites (except France, which has a high Islamic population) are below 2, the “replacement rate” for population.
Countries with low replacement rates have negative population growth. The 2008 documentary “Demographic Winter” describes the economic disaster that countries with negative population growth face. As fewer children are born and the number of retirees increases, the governmental safety nets that secular societies depend on crumble, because there are fewer and fewer workers to support increasingly aging populations.
Barber celebrates the supposedly inexorable tide of atheism as a dream, writing: “Godless countries are highly moral nations with an unusual level of social trust, economic equality, low crime and a high level of civic engagement.” His dream, based on shoddy analysis, would be a nightmare waiting to happen.
- Paul Wilson's blog
- Login to post comments
Comments
good to know that their will be a resurgence in
Submitted by Lipton on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:08pm.
faith in the year 2038. Hopefully it will be Christian faith. These HuffPo pieces aren't half bad if you just turn their conclusion on its head.
killing religion
Submitted by Agnostic on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:27pm.
Read the HuffPo piece and the comments - this is beyond willful ignorance on display. The most violent and 'conservative' religion on the planet is growing through attrition of their foes and a slow and steady conquest but Atheism is going to triumph in 26 years. Perhaps the esteemed dreamer believes that the disasters of Global Warming are going to purge the Earth of all the religions in a modern day flood - perhaps they can include that in their modern secular bible.
One thing these people should keep in mind is that according to history the pinnacle of society is quickly followed by a calamitous fall.
Also, from an economic standpoint anyone who showed up for a week of Macro-economics would understand that a 26 year prediction is ridiculous unless somehow the poor nations are going to suddenly start being supplied goods from Krugman's aliens and that corrupt governments are going to disappear.
For people who jeer at others for reading and believing the stories of the Bible they are quick to fall for this story which is so ludicrous as to be laughable in every sense except its duplicity.
Edit: France, Germany, Belgium and the UK are all having their problems with the religion of peace and they are not always doing too well.
Well said...
Submitted by dcnnj on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 4:18pm.
Well said...
amazing ignorance
Submitted by Agnostic on Fri, 06/08/2012 - 12:55pm.
Thank you, it is people like this author that make it difficult for atheist and agnostics to be taken seriously in the Conservative world.
How old is Judaism?
Submitted by ex buff e-dub on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:21pm.
How old is Judaism? Christianity? Buddhism? Hinduism? They all be gone in 20 years?
She's smoking some quality choom
Hrmmm
Submitted by Coldsnap on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:24pm.
"There is no god, and that's the simple truth. If every trace of religion were wiped out and nothing were passed on, it would never be created exactly that same way again. There might be some other nonsense in it's place, but not that exact nonsense. If all of science were wiped out, it would still be true and someone would figure it all out again."
-Penn Jillette
Discuss.
A little bit of Christmas magic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS4G2f2Xy3w
Mr. Jillette
Submitted by NC Boy on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 6:59pm.
exhibits a strong faith!
Civilization: The West vs the rest on PBS
Submitted by Kingfish17 on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:30pm.
I recently watched Civilization: The West vs the Rest which aired on PBS. I thought the show had quite a few flaws, but was entertaining and informative enough to watch for the full four hours. One thing the show pointed out was the recent explosion of Christianity in China. The number of Christians is hard to estimate, but it could be anywhere between 40 and 100 million, and it's growing fast. More Bibles are being printed in China then anywhere.
"You can’t go take a trip to Las Vegas...on the taxpayer’s dime." Barack Obama
The efforts
Submitted by milootoole on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:31pm.
The efforts of the atheists to have a country that conforms to supporting their imagined slights could happen.
Fewer and fewer people attend church or believe in the precepts. I know Catholic families who no longer attend services due to feeling as strangers in their own parishes since the bulk of the congregation is Spanish speaking .
All these things add up and in my belief, once you get lazy Americans, like me, to sit and watch a Sunday western movie instead of attending church, it will be nigh impossible to get them to go back..
I hope he is wrong. My faith is strong, but I am not a regular church goer because of the above.
Gee, I never understood Latin
Submitted by ex buff e-dub on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:52pm.
Gee, I never understood Latin either, yet I was an altar boy...
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keyw...
You said it "lazy"
Submitted by nolotrippen on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 5:12pm.
I don't know where you live, but here in Los Angeles, you can't spit without hitting a church and most cities with a population over 1000 would be the same.
If you really CAN NOT find a Bible believing church that speaks English, then turn off the TV and learn Spanish (or Korean, Armenian, etc.)
“It is almost impossible to distinguish a politician from a gangster.” (Will Durant, 1931)
I predicted tea parties would return. Now I'm predicting dueling will return.
"Lazy" does not equate to having ---
Submitted by matthewdean on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 10:58pm.
no faith whatsoever.
milo said his faith was strong; he just has particular reasons for not attending at a certain location.
Maybe the same applies as regards set time schedule service(s).
I know many people of faith who do not find it necessary to seek fellowship at church each and every Sunday morning or at Wednesday evening prayer meetings.
To each his own when it comes to communicating, or communing, with the Man upstairs.
MD
Europe
Submitted by Gothampc on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:34pm.
"To prove this point, Barber compares the average per capita GDP of 9 most “secular” countries (Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom) with the rest of the world (using 2004 data)."
I visited the Netherlands in 1999 and many businesses were closed on Ascension Day.
I visited Germany in 2001 and several Berlin businesses shut Saturday afternoon and were closed all day Sunday.
I don't know if these countries were just happy to shut down for what is considered religious days, but they certainly didn't appear to be what I would consider secular.
Good Point
Submitted by NC Boy on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 7:01pm.
Europe is still "Culturally Christian". They don't even realize how much that influence governs their actions.
He is just like the majority of soft, fuzzy academics I know.
Submitted by drsamherman on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 3:36pm.
He throws away data that don't conform to his predetermined conclusion and his piece is so bias-filled that it could not seriously be considered "science" in any way, shape or form. He is reversing the 95% rule that is the standard in human clinical research - he ignores 95% and only focuses on 5% that will support his contentions.
And his type wonders why nobody in medicine takes them seriously?
It is to laugh
Submitted by wingnut55 on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 4:05pm.
Better people than Nigel Barber have said that God is dead. It is to laugh.
Not to worry, Christ said the
Submitted by ricklail on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 4:11pm.
Not to worry, Christ said the gates of hell will not prevail against his church.
What B as in B, S as in S!!
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 4:29pm.
This guy the HuffPo version of Cliff Klaven bloviating at the bar in Cheers.
cajun is confused*
Submitted by cajun2 on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 5:12pm.
Christianity will be dying out but yet the courts are protecting religious beliefs. Oh wait, that's only if you are a Muslim.
http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_20780565/somali-case-rochester-wo...
"as people become more affluent, they are less worried...
Submitted by nolotrippen on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 5:05pm.
James 4:13:
Now listen, you who say, "Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money."
“It is almost impossible to distinguish a politician from a gangster.” (Will Durant, 1931)
I predicted tea parties would return. Now I'm predicting dueling will return.
"as people become more affluent, they are less worried.."
Submitted by nolotrippen on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 5:05pm.
James 4:13:
Now listen, you who say, "Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money."
“It is almost impossible to distinguish a politician from a gangster.” (Will Durant, 1931)
I predicted tea parties would return. Now I'm predicting dueling will return.
“The basic idea is that as
Submitted by Kubrickfilmfan73 on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 6:20pm.
“The basic idea is that as people become more affluent, they are less worried about lacking for basic necessities, or dying early from violence or disease. In other words they are secure in their own existence. They do not feel the need to appeal to supernatural entities to calm their fears and insecurities.”
No, quite the opposite: "To whom much is given, much is expected" (Luke 12:48). That's why Andrew Carnegie built over 2,000 libraries. It's also, irony of ironies, why the National Broadcasters of Communism network is headquartered in Rockefeller Center.
God Laughs
Submitted by NC Boy on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 7:03pm.
when he is once again informed that he is about to be put out of business.
The pride cycle -
Submitted by Slyrr on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 10:01pm.
They're mistaken - these things are cyclical. It's a kind of 'mega trend' in societies that works like this:
1) People start off in very difficult and humble circumstances.
2) They plead to the Lord for help
3) The Lord blesses his people (IF they keep his commandments)
4) The people keep the commandments of the Lord, and they begin to prosper
5) The pattern continues, and prosperity increases
6) Because of prosperity, the people become lifted up in pride and begin to disobey the Lord
7) When the voice of the people chooses iniquity, they drive away the spirit of the Lord
8) The Lord ceases to bless the people because they wilfully rebel against his commandments
9) Disasters soon follow (famine, pestilence, natural disasters, wars, et. al)
10) The people are smitten and afflicted until they start to repent.
11) Return to #1 and start over
At the moment, we're pretty much in the middle of step #7 and #8, with elements of #9 happening already. It's not a 'triumph' for atheism - it's the pride cycle behaving as it always has throughout history. If the atheists want to look on the coming destructions as a 'victory' that pretty much shows you what kind of people they are.
As others have said secular
Submitted by rinohunter on Thu, 06/07/2012 - 11:39pm.
As others have said secular Europe will not be very secular by 2038 but we can't talk about that because it's racist.
Takeover
Submitted by LaVallette on Fri, 06/08/2012 - 5:55am.
Then the Muslims will take over and evrybody will be so much happier than living in a Christian society!!!! Beware what you wish for!!!
And , in 2929...
Submitted by CobraMan on Fri, 06/08/2012 - 12:32pm.
And, in 2929, if Man is still alive, the Age of Aquarius will arrive.
The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States. The US Constitution
Unless you're a fetus. The US Supreme Court
Or Anwar al-Awlaki.
Affluence equals Atheism? Tell that to Vatican City!
Submitted by CobraMan on Fri, 06/08/2012 - 12:40pm.
If affluence equals Atheism, then what explains Vatican City, arguably the most affluent country (and it is considered a sovereign country) on Earth? It's pretty much 100 percent religious, except for the atheists who travel there to protest how rich the Vatican is. Are they the "exception that proves the rule" or something?
The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States. The US Constitution
Unless you're a fetus. The US Supreme Court
Or Anwar al-Awlaki.
Nothing New Here
Submitted by porgiefirefighter on Fri, 06/08/2012 - 1:59pm.
History is littered with similar predictions.