Politico Cites Outdated Daily Kos Poll to 'Prove' Hoffman Lagging in NY-23 Race

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This is a Politico congressional  race story that should have been labeled "WARNING: Read this story with a huge grain of salt." Why? First of all because the poll of the New York 23rd Congressional  District was mostly taken before the big events of this past week were well known there. And even more importantly, the source of the poll was the Daily Kos which endorsed the very liberal Republican in the race, Dede Scozzafava. However, before we go into how absurd this poll was, let us watch Josh Kraushaar of Politico get all breathless about this highly questionable story:

The latest poll in the New York special election shows a close race, with Democrat Bill Owens leading Republican Dede Scozzafava 35 to 30 percent, with Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent.

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll provides some encouraging news for Scozzafava, who remains in second place – and within striking distance of Owens – despite a week of bad publicity. It shows her leading Hoffman among Republican voters, 46 to 27 percent.

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Owens is holding the Democratic base, winning 60 percent of party voters, compared to only 16 percent for Scozzafava. And Hoffman is the choice of independent voters, winning 35 percent to 32 percent for Owens and only 22 percent for Scozzafava.

Also note: The survey was conducted from October 19-21, largely before Scozzafava was criticized for calling the police on a Weekly Standard reporter.

"Also note?" Actually that information is crucial. It was on the night of the 19th when the police were called on the Weekly Standard reporter.  Most people didn't hear about this incident until a day or two later. In addition, the disastrous Scozzafa press conference in front of Hoffman headquarters didn't take place until Oct. 21. Think this information might have an effect on the current voter sentiment in that congressional district?

Just as importantly is relying on the far left Daily Kos as a source for a reliable poll. Now there is an impartial polling group...NOT! Somehow Kraushaar thinks that the Daily Kos sentiments would play no part in their polling. Please excuse your humble correspondent while he bursts out laughing. 

This same laughable Daily Kos poll was also cited in a North Country Public Radio blog and they try just a little too hard to convince us that it is a valid source:

A final note: The question of the DailyKos poll's credibility has been well-debated here.

The survey is widely accepted -- and in no place that I can find has anyone challenged it factually as a sincere effort to gather accurate information.

So...unless someone has anything new on that front to offer, let's talk about the new numbers and what they mean, and not rehash opinions about Kos...

Yeah, somehow they just can't find any reason or anybody that can challenge the reliability of a Daily Kos poll. Remember, this is public radio.

Meanwhile the Politico story has drawn quite a bit of criticism judging by the reader comments such as these:

The most shockingly stupid part of this post is citing a Daily Kos Poll. 

Josh, you are smarter than this. First, it is a poll by DailyKos who obviously has an agenda and makes no bones about it.. Second, it is a poll taken a lifetime ago in politics. It is a worthless as, well, you know. This is not news and you know it.

A Dailykos poll!? Didn't Kos actually endorse Scozzafava? So, somehow, a Kos poll comes up with 35% for the democrat and 30% for the democrat-like republican. So, in this heavily republican district, the two people who behave like democrats garner 65% of the vote. My arse.

Daily KOS poll....what???????

Perhaps Kraushaar should wait until a poll is taken after October 22 plus use a source that is just a wee bit less leftwing looney than the Daily Kos before rendering an opinion on the direction in this congressional race.

—P.J. Gladnick is a freelance writer and creator of the DUmmie FUnnies blog.


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DKos endorsed a Republican

That's all you need to know.

....So has ACORN. More

....So has ACORN.

More than enough eh?

Btw...Newtie really needs to get out of our lives...he endorses her and I just saw where he is going on some kind of a tour with Rev. Al.

Lovely...

'Doubling down on stupid is not a particularly good idea'~Breitbart

McCain With a Brain

When Newt was the old Newt, the pre-establishment Newt, the Newt who was more concerned about ideas than face time, he was worth having around.  The new Newt can best be described as John McCain with a brain.  That gets you in the chair opposite Charlie Rose, but doesn't do a damn for the country.

THE HOFFMAN BAROMETER

 HOFFMAN: A VITAL BAROMETER?

There is a most interesting congressional district race in NY this fall. A mush mouth half-way Republican gal is up against the standard democrat (secular socialist) in a district that went 52% for Xerxes last November. A true conservative named Doug Hoffman is polling at about 25% of the 3 way split vote. Some are saying 35% could win the seat.

The megabillion dollar question (actually trillion these days) is…will liberal NY voters finally wake up after 9 months of political insanity, of trillions in new debt, of 10+% unemployment, of power grabs and so on OR will it happen once again that the voters are blind suckas that still believe Pelosi-ism is good for America?

True, its wacko NY but the nation will look closely at this race as an early “pigeon in the mine” politically.
Close IS a NY cigar in the big scheme of things this time.
Keep in mind two factions will be piling on Hoffman along with the media.
Maybe America is not yet “face down in the mud” enough. We shall see.

A win will mean the mush mouth RHINO losers will finally get the overdue lesson they so need to learn.
That would be an early Christmas for millions of us exiled conservatives.

http://conservablogs...

Doug Schexnayder, Ph.D.  (theconservativecrawfish)

Sarah Palin endorses Hoffman

I can hardly wait to see if Sarah Palin, flexing her muscles politically can help turn this one in favor of Hoffman.

I have written a couple letters to the GOP advising them to wake up as they have outlived their usefullness, and get on board with the true conservatives, or be eaten alive by the Tea Party crowd who will then have no use for them.

The GOP RNC and RNCC now only serves to obstruct us and is self-serviant. We get this one and we solidify. We are bona-fide and then, we can really start being heard as we should have all along as , "We, the People"

It will be a good riddance to the GOP's RNC and RNCC who have spent all their time under the desks on the other side of the isle.

So long...we won't miss you, or forget you.You weren't much good when we needed you most.

Alaska Mark

Sounds to me like the

Sounds to me like the Kossacks are indulging in wishful thinking.  Wishing, does not change the facts, no matter how hard one tries.

Facts are like kryptonite to the liberal.

I checked Rasmussen, then

I checked Rasmussen, then did a general search for NY-23 polls, and found nothing, so DailyKos may be the only organization that is running a poll for this race.  I wish Rasmussen would do a poll on this race, as it would have to be less biased than DailyKos.

"A communist is someone who reads Marx.  An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx."  Ronald Reagan

I haven't had much faith in

I haven't had much faith in Newt since he sat on that couch with Nancy Pelosi speaking about the importance of coming together to fight Global Warming...or some such pap!

Newt is what's wrong with the GOP today! 

One word I never want to hear again: Bipartisan!  -Sven

Newt -- suffers from

Newt -- suffers from LIKEMEITIS.

He wants everyone to like him. 

But if it's a choice between his political enemies and potential friends, he prefers his enemies like him first.

Don't forget... you can't spell OBAMA without the support of A MOB 

Thats a perfect description

Thats a perfect description of that egomaniac baz  also

Newt's Latest BS Line

Newt came out swinging on this morning's FOX & Friends.  His latest jab at all of us is that national conservatives endorsing and supporting Hoffman are hypocrites because the establishment decision to support Dumpy Dede was made at the local level. 

According to Newt this is tantamount to Big Brother trying to take over the local sheriff's race. (and of course according to Mr. Know-it-all this is the antithesis of conservatism). 

Newt knows he can't support or defend Dede's politics so his effort is now aimed at supporting the process that got her nominated.

caring -- so, in that case,

caring -- so, in that case, why didn't Newt just keep his trap shut?

He doesn't HAVE to endorse every stinkin' Rep candidate also endorsed by the establishment.  Does he?

Does he think the great unwashed are just waiting for him to pronounce on a race? 

Did the national media chase Newt down for his official comments on the 23rd District race? Seems rather unlikely.

More likely HE issued a PRESS RELEASE totally off his own bat.

Don't forget... you can't spell OBAMA without the support of A MOB 

Answers to JB's questions

1) He can't help himself.

2) No

3) Yes

4) No

Let (either) him win

First choice = Hoffman wins.  Second choice = the Dem wins.  The second choice will be okay because the winner of this race will not change the House during the next year.  Let the Dem serve for a year; it will be worth it to let the RINOs know that we are not going to put up with them any longer!  Let the Dems high-five themselves over a victory with 38% of the vote!

Stop federal judges from foisting their notions of "fairness" on the States.  Amend the 14th Amendment! - tim413

Tim -- the correct stance

Tim -- the correct stance for sure.

RINOS need to be taught a huge lesson that the conservative base of the Republican party isn't going to be poked inh the eye and expected to smile any more.

Best result is Hoffman walks it.

But as there's no differnce between Scarface and the Dem (except the Dem is running to the freakin' RIGHT of the official Rep candidate) then why worry?

Conservatives lose nothing and gain the bonus of letting RINOs know they need conservatives way more than conserrvatives need them.

Newt Gingrich -- I was for Scarface before I'll be against her in a week or two.

Don't forget... you can't spell OBAMA without the support of A MOB 

I agree.

There are two things that make this worth a fall on the sword even to the point of electing a Democrat:

1)  The Republican candidate isn't just taking a couple of liberal positions, she seems like a dyed in the wool, hair on fire liberal on virtually all the issues; and

2)  The district has been represented in the past by a conservative.  In other words, if the Republican wins it's still a loss.

So why not take a strong shot at turning the situation around into a big WIN?  I just hope Hoffman has a really good ground game, because the outcome is going to be on getting our team to the polls in an off year election. 

 

 

Next time I get a GOP fundraising request......

I plan to print SCOZZAFAVA across the face with a big $0.00 in the contribution box. With the "real" conservatives backing Hoffman, I would hope a Hoffman win gets the GOP into rethinking their support for these RINOS infiltraiting the republican party. The GOP definately needs a good kick in the butt to wake up and to read their own party platform.

Last fall. I scratched on

Last fall. I scratched on such a request: "You haven't earned a donation. Grow a backbone. Support Palin." (it was the election)

Then I might consider giving you money.

We have to also deal with the trash in the republican party.

But then republicans just do what they're told. Isn't that right Mr President?

 

"You lie!"  Rep. Joe Wilson R-(SC)

The Daily Kos/Research 2000

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll

Sorry, choking on my strong coffee and croissant here.

As many have pointed out, any poll with the words "Daily Kos" in the title is already a JOKE.  Nuff said.

The same charge could be made by a Newsbusters poll. Much as I love y'all, I'll stick with Rasmussen for accuracy in polls, thanks very much.

Don't forget... you can't spell OBAMA without the support of A MOB 

Newt = Toast

Let's take comfort in the fact that no matter who wins, this outrageous endorsement will destroy any chances Newt might have had in the Presidential primaries in 2012.

Ugly Candidate Only Win in Hyper-Partisan Districts

This chick is F U G L Y.  Sorry, but it's true.  She is fat, not remotely photogenic and she has the hairstyle that George Stephanopolous and David Gregory use.

Unless you are in a very lopsided district, the best looking candidate typically wins.  And considering that she appears to be very liberal in a district with a small majority of GOP voter registrations then this is a match made in Rahm Emanual heaven.

She needs to crash and burn and BADLY to put the fear of (voters) into those freshman and sophmore members of Congress whose life expectancy light just started blinking....

PJ...

Your guest blogger is killing today! Fell out of my chair at least twice! 

"The bureaucracy is growing to meet the needs of the growing bureaucracy"