This is a Politico congressional race story that should have been labeled "WARNING: Read this story with a huge grain of salt." Why? First of all because the poll of the New York 23rd Congressional District was mostly taken before the big events of this past week were well known there. And even more importantly, the source of the poll was the Daily Kos which endorsed the very liberal Republican in the race, Dede Scozzafava. However, before we go into how absurd this poll was, let us watch Josh Kraushaar of Politico get all breathless about this highly questionable story:
The latest poll in the New York special election shows a close race, with Democrat Bill Owens leading Republican Dede Scozzafava 35 to 30 percent, with Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent.
The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll provides some encouraging news for Scozzafava, who remains in second place – and within striking distance of Owens – despite a week of bad publicity. It shows her leading Hoffman among Republican voters, 46 to 27 percent.
Owens is holding the Democratic base, winning 60 percent of party voters, compared to only 16 percent for Scozzafava. And Hoffman is the choice of independent voters, winning 35 percent to 32 percent for Owens and only 22 percent for Scozzafava.
Also note: The survey was conducted from October 19-21, largely before Scozzafava was criticized for calling the police on a Weekly Standard reporter.
"Also note?" Actually that information is crucial. It was on the night of the 19th when the police were called on the Weekly Standard reporter. Most people didn't hear about this incident until a day or two later. In addition, the disastrous Scozzafa press conference in front of Hoffman headquarters didn't take place until Oct. 21. Think this information might have an effect on the current voter sentiment in that congressional district?
Just as importantly is relying on the far left Daily Kos as a source for a reliable poll. Now there is an impartial polling group...NOT! Somehow Kraushaar thinks that the Daily Kos sentiments would play no part in their polling. Please excuse your humble correspondent while he bursts out laughing.
This same laughable Daily Kos poll was also cited in a North Country Public Radio blog and they try just a little too hard to convince us that it is a valid source:
A final note: The question of the DailyKos poll's credibility has been well-debated here.
The survey is widely accepted -- and in no place that I can find has anyone challenged it factually as a sincere effort to gather accurate information.
So...unless someone has anything new on that front to offer, let's talk about the new numbers and what they mean, and not rehash opinions about Kos...
Yeah, somehow they just can't find any reason or anybody that can challenge the reliability of a Daily Kos poll. Remember, this is public radio.
Meanwhile the Politico story has drawn quite a bit of criticism judging by the reader comments such as these:
The most shockingly stupid part of this post is citing a Daily Kos Poll.
Josh, you are smarter than this. First, it is a poll by DailyKos who obviously has an agenda and makes no bones about it.. Second, it is a poll taken a lifetime ago in politics. It is a worthless as, well, you know. This is not news and you know it.
A Dailykos poll!? Didn't Kos actually endorse Scozzafava? So, somehow, a Kos poll comes up with 35% for the democrat and 30% for the democrat-like republican. So, in this heavily republican district, the two people who behave like democrats garner 65% of the vote. My arse.
Daily KOS poll....what???????
Perhaps Kraushaar should wait until a poll is taken after October 22 plus use a source that is just a wee bit less leftwing looney than the Daily Kos before rendering an opinion on the direction in this congressional race.