NBC/WSJ Poll Uses Interesting Methodology to Find Obama's Bounce in Popularity
The media have been jumping for joy since an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll discovered a supposedly big bounce in President Obama's approval rating.
But as Hot Air's Ed Morrissey discovered, the pollsters involved used some interesting methodology to reach this conclusion:
NBC/WSJ’s pollster, Hart/McInturff, polled 1000 adults without restricting respondents to registered or likely voters. In fact, 19% of those responding claimed not to have voted in the 2008 elections, which is almost 1 in 5 and tends to make the predictive value of the poll rather weak. The D/R/I sample split is 31/21/39, a ten-point Democratic advantage when Gallup and Rasmussen both show the electorate evenly split or with Republicans taking a slight edge in affiliation. A 21% sample composition for Republicans is a gross underrepresentation. The previous poll has a 33/23/36 split.
On top of that, 42% of respondents say they voted for Obama, and 29% for John McCain, while 10% split evenly say they voted for someone else or can’t recall for which candidate they voted. Since Obama beat McCain by seven points in the popular vote, this appears to oversample Obama voters badly. Compare this sample to their previous poll, in which the split was 41/32 and 17% said they didn’t vote for anyone at all, and one can see where at least some of the bounce originates.
Yeah, I'd say including only 21 percent Republicans is a tad absurd given what just happened in November.
But the end does justify this means, doesn't it?
- Noel Sheppard's blog
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Comments
Why does the Wall Street Journal partner with NBC...
Submitted by Red Jeep on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 3:05pm.
...if it wants credibility?
Guess they got the poll they paid to get.
"I can't remember who I voted for"
Submitted by SickofLibs on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 3:21pm.
And those respondents are included?
Why not also poll household pets?
"Woof."
"Meow."
Noel.. an adustment to adjust for the increase in Rebublicans
Submitted by Gary Hall on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 3:26pm.
Well, perhaps it's just one of them there liberal knee-jerk reactions to the recent findings:
WASHINGTON, Jan. 3 (UPI) -- The number of U.S. adults identifying themselves as Republicans last month reached the highest level six years, Rasmussen Reports said Monday.
While the number of adults calling themselves Republicans was 37 percent in December, up 1 percentage point from November, the number of adults calling themselves Democrats fell to 33.7 percent, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, results indicated. Both
Rasmussen said the figures reflect the largest number of Republicans in the nation since December 2004 and the lowest number of Democrats since November 2002.
'Since more people consider themselves Republicans now, we'd better poll less of them to reach our goals.'
(;~/ gary
Between this one and your other one on Palin's polling - what a day Noel.
Almost exactly what I noted
Submitted by bkeyser on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 3:33pm.
Almost exactly what I noted here.
Now, who'd I vote for... and where's my patchouli oil??
Submitted by shivas irons redux on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 3:39pm.
while 10% split evenly say they voted for someone else or can’t recall for which candidate they voted.
I love this "category"; and I'll bet it could be accurately entitled: "Those that voted for Barry but are too embarrassed to admit it."
Wait....what?
Submitted by jon_torlin on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 4:10pm.
How the hell does anyone not rememeber who they voted for president?? How does that honestly happen? I can see if they might forget who their congressman is, but for president?
As shivas noted above, they must be too embarrassed to have voted for Barry, or the other option is the voter is such a dumbass that they probably shouldn't be allowed to vote anyway until they've been screened for education. The heeluvit is that the latter is equally likely as the former.
-Jon
"...can’t recall for which candidate they voted."
Submitted by Dave. on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 6:01pm.
I really, really wish I had not read that part.
As Royal Marshall would say, "Just Damn."
-Dave
Vote for the American in November
this poll says one thing
Submitted by Q on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 6:37pm.
but other polls show similar trends.
fox has obamas approval/disapproval at a 47/44 splilt.
gallup, nbc,cnn, reuters, only rasmussen shows the presidents disapprval lower than his approval.
maybe his popularity is up because
Submitted by hayate1 on Thu, 01/20/2011 - 7:24pm.
many of his policies are exact continuations of Bush's and, in some cases, more to the right.
Even dick Cheney complemented Obama on his policies in the war on terrorists by saying that they are the same as Bush's.
"Facts are not decided by how many people believe them. Truth is not determined by how loudly it is shouted."
"while some can’t
Submitted by SonnyPalermo on Fri, 01/21/2011 - 11:36am.
"while some can’t recall for which candidate they voted."
It was little more than two years ago.
It was the presidential election.
They can't recall?
Just me, or anyone else feel these people not only shouldn't be used for polls, they shouldn't be allowed to vote.
Not buying it
Submitted by Ashrak on Fri, 01/21/2011 - 6:03pm.
"can't remember?"
Yeah, I bet a lot of folks are having trouble remembering voting for the "One".
In Illinois, when Blagomania hit the fan, a great many "forgot" who they voted for too.