Global Warming Is No Laughing Matter

Photo of Noel Sheppard.

The next time some media member says something stupid like "the global warming debate is over," or "the science is settled," consider the firestorm that was set off by a tiny NewsBusters article playfully titled "Clean Air Causes Global Warming, Global Warming Causes Smog."

Although it is now two weeks since this was first published, folks at NewsBusters and RealClimate -- as well as an "esteemed" NASA scientist -- continue to bicker about its contents and meaning.

In fact, as of Thursday evening, NASA's Gavin Schmidt was still battling to make his point:

I have never insinuated that Sheppard didn’t know what photochemical means. I have merely pointed out that he doesn’t understand the differences between ozone and aerosols, or tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. And now you are blaming Reuters for you and Sheppard’s inability to read more than two lines in to an article.
If the "debate was over" and the "science settled," why would one of the world's leading climate alarmists be arguing "the differences between ozone and aerosols, or tropospheric and stratospheric ozone" with strangers, while trying to make the point that someone he's never met or spoken to is unaware of such distinctions due to poor reading comprehension skills?

Considering the hundreds of articles I've written concerning the way anthropogenic global warming is being reported around the world -- including numerous exposés about how the NASA unit Schmidt works for might be involved in manipulating temperature data -- it seems extraordinary that a somewhat satirical, 577-word frolic - with almost half consisting of quotes from cited sources - generated so much discussion and consternation.

After all, it should go without saying that if you can't see the irony in one study claiming cleaner air in Europe is largely responsible for rising temperatures, and another concluding that global warming is increasing smog, you must either be too close to this subject or completely lacking a sense of humor.

That "clean air" and smog might be scientifically unrelated in technical terms is irrelevant. Probably less than five percent of the world's population knows the difference between the two, and likely less than one percent can explain the disparities between photochemical smog and smog.

Moreover, probably less than one percent understands that aerosols in the air refer to particulate matter and not what comes out of their Right Guard cans.

Yet, those familiar with my writing and fastidious attention to research and detail are well aware that I am part of the knowing percentages estimated in the preceding paragraphs.

This, in my view, made the Reuters and NewScientist pieces, and their timing, so ironic as well as newsworthy from a media analysis perspective. After all, NewsBusters is INDEED a media analysis website.

Yet, this seemed lost in Schmidt's July 12 RC posting wherein he referred to my article as "nonsense," "boneheaded," "foolishness," and "dumb," while concluding that for me "complexity is something to be abused rather than a challenge to be understood."

All that anger over a 577-word trifle that comically concluded with the much-quoted punch line of a 1970s margarine commercial - "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature" - which even included a link to a video of the ad so that people who didn't remember the reference could get the joke?

C'mon! Even if humor isn't your strong suit, how much "complexity" would you expect from a 577-word article anyway? After all, it took Schmidt 922 words to debase it -- not to mention the time he and his followers have devoted to trashing it and me since his piece was posted -- and frankly, I don't think he did a very good job.

Now, almost two weeks later, this item that probably took me all of ten minutes to put together -- and required less functioning brain cells than what are supposedly destroyed by consuming one domestic beer! -- has taken on a life of its own as evident in a recent RC comment by Schmidt himself:

My point in the above piece was that Sheppard didn't know what he was talking about, and yet saw fit to pontificate at great length on the perfidy of scientists.

Great length? The non-quoted text in my "pontification" amounts to 292 words. To loosely paraphrase Jack Palance in the hit 1991 film "City Slickers" (admittedly a stretch, but what I'd like to say might be inappropriate for a family website!), I've had belches last longer. If this is what Schmidt considers great length, it further brings into question the veracity of his infamous climate models which are so at the foundation of the entire global warming myth.

As to perfidy, if Schmidt thinks my introductory quip "In today's 'People Can Prove Whatever They Want If They Really Try Hard Enough' moment" rises to the level of accusing the folks involved in these studies of perpetrating a fraud, he's lacking signficantly more than a sense of humor.

Does this mean I am employing the John Kerry botched joke defense? Not at all, for there was a serious point attempting to be made amidst the levity.

But, those that couldn't detect the obvious comedic bouquet - assuming, of course, they even read the article in question, and didn't just take Schmidt's debasement as gospel - should ask themselves "Why?"

After all, this was clearly an opinion piece intentionally lacking "complexity" designed to tickle the intellect...if not the intellectual.

For instance, wasn't this Swiss study fascinating in that it found Europe's clean air efforts resulted in at least 50 percent of that continent's 1°C rise in temperatures since 1980?

Wouldn't that mean that less than half of the warming in Europe during this same period could possibly be attributed to rising CO2 levels if such was your wont? With this in mind, how much of America's rising temperatures since the mid-'70s could be traced to her efforts to eradicate pollution?

Think about it: If American and European desires to clean their respective air have INDEED resulted in higher temperatures in both regions, mightn't this be a factor to consider as it pertains to global warming?

Schmidt dismissed this in his hit piece on me claiming Europe isn't the globe. An RC commenter supported his position by stating that since Europe only makes up five percent of the earth's total landmass, its numbers are irrelevant in determining a global average.

Not to pick nits, but Europe's landmass is actually 6.8 percent of earth's non-water total. Now, throw in the U.S. - the third or fourth largest nation (up for dispute) behind Russia and Canada - and if its temperature increases since 1980 are also more a result of its anti-pollution efforts than rising carbon dioxide levels, isn't this important? Or, are temperatures in America and Europe really too small a percentage to be concerned with as it pertains to global warming?

As I pointed out in my July 18 piece, regardless of the percentages involved, if this Swiss study is right, rising temperatures caused by cleaner air on any part of the planet do indeed increase the average. The idea that folks are contesting this - here goes my overblown sense of humor again! - is rather hysterical.

What I also seem to be alone in finding fascinating is the possibility that our efforts to protect ozone and reduce smog - whether aerosols are involved or not! - might have led to cleaner air which has warmed parts of the planet and potentially resulted in, according to the EPA, increased photochemical smog.

Schmidt scoffed at this. And yet, as I demonstrated in my July 18 piece, in America the legislation enacted to comply with the Montreal Protocol - the Clean Air Act of 1990 - did INDEED result in cleaner air here and NOT just reductions in ozone depleting sources. As it is possible that other nations around the world also used Protocol compliance to further their anti-pollution efforts, it is by no means farfetched to suggest that the Montreal Protocol resulted in cleaner air in some parts of the world and NOT just a reduction of CFCs.

Yet, two weeks later, Schmidt is still fighting this issue :

Hmmm.... so let's see. Perhaps Sheppard's use of the term "chicken and egg conundrum" is unfamiliar to you? It refers to something (X) causing something else (Y) which goes on to cause X over again. What are the somethings to which Sheppard refers?

In an interesting chicken and the egg conundrum, scientists in America claimed Thursday that global warming causes smog.

So, cleaning the air causes global warming - which ends up leading to higher levels of smog?

It's pretty clear from this sentence that Y="global warming". X is first "clearing the air" (referring to the reports on the GRL aerosols paper), and yet at the end, X is clearly 'smog' (referring to the press about the EPA ozone report). So if Sheppard is not equating the two, perhaps you would care to explain what is chicken and what is egg? It can't be aerosols, because the EPA report does not suggest the warming increases aerosols. And it can't be ozone because ozone is a greenhouse gas and clearing it from the air would lead to a cooling not a warming. Do please enlighten me.

Let me try, Gavin: you're looking at this like a Vulcan and NOT a human being. The entire flight deck of the Enterprise is laughing their heads off as the credits roll, and you're frowning at the camera because the punch line was "illogical."

Imagine for a moment -- if it's at all possible! -- you're NOT a climate modeler trying to spread global warming hysteria around the world, and, like probably 99 percent or more of the population, you don't know the intricate scientific differences between clean air, dirty air, aerosols, smog, and photochemical smog.

Under this scenario, here's the chicken and the egg conundrum that should be tremendously obvious -- as well as FUNNY! -- if you weren't working so hard to defend your dogma: air dirty; man cleans air; cleaner air causes global warming; global warming causes smog; air dirty again.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Is this scientifically accurate? No, but that wasn't the point, and those suggesting it was are either doing so disingenuously to discredit a writer that has suddenly become a threat to their cause, or are so lacking a sense of humor that they should do us all a favor and stick to reading technical papers and journals.

When all the aerosols clear, my July 11 article was intended to make people smile while they think. It appears the contentiousness surrounding this debate makes this as tough for some as walking and chewing gum at the same time.

For what it's worth, I also find this extremely amusing, and aren't the slightest bit concerned if I'm doing a Billy Idol impersonation...with apologies in advance to those that don't get that joke either.

—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters.


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Noel, you knew exactly what you were doing...

to Schmidt, pushing him.  you were playing him like a puppet and you know it.  i mean, i love the fact that an "esteemed" scientist basically got caught with his pants down and now, instead of attacking the message, he is attacking the messenger (which global warming alarmists love to do).

Keep pushing him, Noel, we are loving the train wreck!!

good point

Right on, bubba.  So many times in debating the AGW supporters, you can corner them and defeat them on a particular topic but then they'll resort to "but we have to do something or else" or "shouldn't we err on the side of being safe" or something about big oil, Pres. Bush, etc., etc.  The debate rarely stays civil.  In the debates I've been involved, their side always resorts to childish tactics, mostly namecalling.

Boy Noel. He is really

Boy Noel. He is really miffed at you:-)

Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!

Kinda makes you understand

Kinda makes you understand why they won't debate scientists. Just launch insults and smear other's works from their cave.

"The debate is over",

"The debate is over", translated, merely means "We think we're right, and so should you."

But we don't live in Oceania, and they're not the thought police.

 

------------------------------------------------------------

"It could be the answer to our age-old, philosophical question, 'Why are we here?' PLASTIC!"

If you have the time, and I

If you have the time, and I mean a lot of it, it is definitely worth checking out the link at the top of Noel's piece. It is the response to Schmidt's rant. At one point in the comments, abeauitifulperson, while trying to be cute, brought up that he went to RealClimate to see what it was all about. He posted a rebuke of NB on that site and this started an effort by several NB posters to find out more about AGW from RC's perspective. There is a link to that RC thread in the posting. My conclusions to the whole entertaining ordeal is that RC may know some math, but they do not know everything.

The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty

Actually, Noel, the fact

Actually, Noel, the fact that this so-called "scientist" is reduced to attacking you personally is the sure sign that you are right on target.  This is what lefties do when you refute them with facts: they go personal.  To paraphrase Ann Coulter: if you're not making leftie heads explode, you're not doing it right.

Robert

Robert,

Well, and especially the fact that he chose to attack a piece with so much obvious levity in it. He's completely ignored all the totally serious pieces I've written on this issue the past three years, including those dealing with the NASA unit he works for.

Why go after this trifle? Because by ignoring the humor that's involved, it's easy to make the suggestions appear flawed. After all, two days earlier I wrote a piece called "Is Wikipedia Promoting Global Warming Hysteria?" Why didn't he go after that, especially since his website PROMOTES Wikipedia as a resource?

Reason: because it's easy to make someone with his tongue in his cheek look foolish if you analyze his partially satirical piece from a purely factual perspective. And, since he knows very few people click on links to articles he cites, he can do this with almost total impunity. ns

Noel: Because AGW is such a

Noel: Because AGW is such a central tenet of the lefties, and such an obvious article of faith for them, they have absolutely no sense of humor about it.  Not that they have much of a sense of humor about any of their ideological stances, of course.  They really just want to eliminate any diversity of opinion; they are essentially totalitarians.

NS

Wow....

Pic's of Mother Nature, Right Guard, F'ing & Spock .....all in the same post.

I am impressed.   

David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive

 

B

B,

I aim to please. After all, even though I had a link to the video of that Chiffon ad in the piece that started all this, some of the supposedly brightest minds in our nation -- you know, those folks with all the impressive letters after their names that dupe people like abeautifulperson!!! -- couldn't between them recognize the levity.

With this in mind, I thought pictures and embedded videos might help them this time! :-) ns

Well, NS

It certainly helped me....add some fun to my day.

Thanks! 

David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive

 

I fear if you are not

I fear if you are not careful, Schmidt will put on some space diapers, throw some masking tape,  pepper spray, and a BB gun in the trunk, and head toward your house in order to talk to you about global warming. :D

I can see some of the users

I can see some of the users with whom you were arguing responding with "Well, your mom was no laughing matter last night! HAH!"

 

------------------------------------------------------------

"It could be the answer to our age-old, philosophical question, 'Why are we here?' PLASTIC!"

 Ideas have consequences

 Ideas have consequences Mr. Schmidt.  If we think your ideas about AGW stink, then we are obliged to break out the aerosol can to make things smell better (Yes, Mr. Schmidt, I understand the  aerosol/particulates issue.  It's a joke...no need to correct me.)

 

Good Job Noel!  Keep up the good work!

 

RC losing face...

It was the response that 'abeautifulperson' posted about what Real Climate was saying that led me to visit their site because I was interested to see what type of people were attacking Noel.

Once there, I could not keep my mouth shut because of they way Noel, and NB was being portrayed. Soooo...I did ask Schmidt a question concerning Noel's piece and was immediately accused of shilling for Noel and this site. It's been all down hill from there.

I know that Noel is more than capable of  going toe to toe with Schmidt concerning what he had written, so I left the Noel piece to Noel and started to ask other questions. I'm not going to give a play-by-play because it's all in writing on RC and here at NB, but I will give you my impression. I am now considered a crack-pot because I have the audacity to question RC's science, and I'm being vilified because I am not refering to Schmidt as "Dr. Gavin Schmidt". However, I have been very civil by addressing him as Mr. Schmidt. Why do I do this? I have been told by more than one of their posters, that someone in his position of authority demands respect and should be addressed as 'Doctor'. Sorry folks, for me that respect has to be earned, not just demanded and granted. Not only has he himself been rude to me and treated me like a child, many of the posters there have been brutal. You can check for yourself, I have been nothing but civil. It's as if I have told them that their God is a fraud.

I have more to say, but I must leave for the evening. 

45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm

RC is delusional

Clear, don't feel bad I have now been accused of all sorts of scientific injustices because they cannot understand that Noel was simply contrasting clean air vs. smog - even after I defined the word. They are dead set that Noel did a scientific analysis, read the full EPA report and is a scientific illiterate all by continuing to state things he never said. I am now considered "hysterical" for trying to explain to them Noel's context and word usage. 

As for Gavin, I will continue to call him Gavin.

The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource

  Wonder when the next

 

Wonder when the next story about NB will come out of those folks.

We should start a spin off blog to discount and debate with these folks. They are so silly, it could rival reality TV. : ]

 Realclimatedebate.com?

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

general company...

You should check out Gavins latest thread titled "Once more into the bray". It mostly attacks Monckton, but takes a few shots at us deniers as if we are the devil re-incarnated. Some of it, if you read between the lines, is directed at NB.

45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm

When I said we, I really meant you folks

Thanks CT, wish I had more time so I could help. I have alerted a few folks to it though. They are waking up. : ]

 

 

"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg

gc...

Two thumbs up!

 

45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm

Clear,

I especially liked where some questions you asked were answered with "go here, read this, study the other." You would think that folks with so much knowledge (much more than we mere mortals) would be able to explain their points. But it's apparently beneath them.

And after whining about "name-calling" and "petty bickering" here, these gems were tossed out at either you or PopTech (and Noel, btw):

-it is ignorance; and it it is done with purpose then it is dishonest and likely dishonorable.

-more experience in critical thinking than yourself for example

-So if you have an audience that can not see the forest through the trees because you are generating fog to obscure vision, then newsbusters is guilty, whether they realize it or not, of the highest form of treason I can think of, ‘purposeful academic dishonesty’. [ Honest, AGW acolytes decrying "purposeful academic dishonesty" while pretty much practicing it! Oh, the irony!]

-But I would never expect such a site to have any integrity or honor

And finally, even Gavin had enough. This from that great "centrist," John P. Reisman:

-[edit - too ad hom, please stick to issues not people]

Woo! It was like "Mr. Toad's Wild Ride" going there. And they're not interested in informing or debating. They just want to stand in a circle and...  (will he say it?)

...pat each other on the back.

Naturally, LEON was there!   ;^D

 

IJ re: RC...

For me, one of the most condenscending posts were the ones where I was told to start reading at their "start here" link, and informed I needed to read the part about 'how to ask a scientist a question'. That particular piece was a hoot, but you could tell by the way the author wrote it that he arrogantly dead serious. As you can tell from my bold highlights, this one really pissed me off. Who the hell do they think they are? If I remember my biology from school correctly, their crap stinks just like yours and mine. It's still a free country we live in so I will ask a question any damn way I please!

 

45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm

CT Do you have a link for

CT Do you have a link for "How to Ask a Sientist a Question".

Though I don't call myself a scientist, I was pretty good in research and would like to see this.

Thanks.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

Yeah, try google.com. OK,

Yeah, try google.com. OK, I'm being a smart a$$. I did that and came up with all kinds of ask the scientist stuff. Funny thing though dan, RC wasn't mentioned. LOL! Good job busting their chops. Sorry for the smart a$$ reply above... not enough coffee this morning...:)

"Nuke 'em 'til they... oh hell, just shoot 'em!"

It was a specific article.

It was a specific article. I'm not interested in the others. And to be honest, I'm a little lazy and didn't want to weed through the bs at ReallyScaredClimatologist.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

How To Ask Questions the Smart Way

 

How To Ask Questions the Smart Way  (as linked from RC) or alternate site

 

"Don't claim you've found a bug

When you're having problems with a piece of software,
don't claim you've found a bug, unless you're very,
very sure of your
ground. Hint: Unless you can provide a source-code patch
fixing the problem, or a regression test against a
previous version that demonstrates incorrect behaviour, you're
probably not sure enough. This applies to Web pages and
documentation, too; if you've found a documentation bug,
you should supply replacement text and a note as to which
pages it should go on.

Remember, many other users aren't
experiencing your problem. Otherwise, you would have learned
about it while reading the documentation and searching the
Web. (You did do that before complaining, didn't you?) This means that
very probably it's you who're doing something wrong, not
the software."

 

 

Sorry Giles, If that's the

Sorry Giles, If that's the site it's worse than I thought.

We're not here asking you or Gavin to solve a problem for us. Or to debug a program. We have our own information. As you've seen and often ignored, or just repeat the mantra. Statements are being made and Gavin and RC are being asked to substantiate it. And not play word games.

As I stated in one post. (Not a question.) One that Gavin did not post. Opinion often masquarades as fact. And only by allowing all to speak can people sort through and find fact.

As Gavin said before when people were asking for a discussion of why GISS varied so much from the others. (Yes I also read RC) He didn't want to get into the reasons why there were different opinions on tempertures. (I'm paraphrasing) So is GISS; opinion or fact? It seems to depend on the situation and reason for asking.

However, it is apparent that this article is the Gavin Schmidt approach. "making it clear that you are able and willing to help in the process of developing the solution". Translation. You agree with me. And you will help me farther my cause. Welcome. We see a lot of that at RC. Otherwise don't expect a reply.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

paraphrasing or MSU?

Essentially, the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is 'claiming to have found a bug' - insinuating that all the research and data that shows the effects of human added CO2 is incorrect. The 'source code' or 'patch' that is on offer from the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is most often not published or in non-reputable journals - the 'fix'  doesn't work. That is also evident in the lack of use of those rare bits of  'source code' or 'patches' that did get published being  cited in further reputable research, furthering the climate science knowledgebase.

If you don't like how Dr. Schmidt  or others respond, perhaps you'd be happier arguing those DDS points on other blogs:

 

 "Essentially, the

 "Essentially, the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is 'claiming to have found a bug' - insinuating that all the research and data that shows the effects of human added CO2 is incorrect."

Sorry Giles. That's your denial. 

Many of the very graphs you've posted here show periods that were warmer. You just refuse to see it. In addition there is physical evidence. If you can't demonstrate an unusual condition, you have nothing. 

Computer programs or evidence? I'm going with evidence.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

unsupported screed that hasn't held up to scientific scrutiny

"Many of the very graphs you've posted here show periods that were warmer."

As normal, a vague, contentless, and unsupported screed based on a denier meme that hasn't held up to any sort of scientific scrutiny. One that doesn't further any discussion.

*"During the last glacial period, abrupt regional warmings
(likely up to 16°C within decades over Greenland) and
coolings occurred repeatedly over the North Atlantic
region. They likely had global linkages, such as with
major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. It is unlikely that
these events were associated with large changes in global
mean surface temperature, but instead likely involved a
redistribution of heat within the climate system associated
with changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation."

*"It is likely that earlier periods with higher than present
atmospheric CO2 concentrations were warmer than
present. This is the case both for climate states over
millions of years (e.g., in the Pliocene, about 5 to 3 Ma)
and for warm events lasting a few hundred thousand
years (i.e., the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,
55 Ma)."  Periods with many significant differences, not providing a reasonable comparison with present-day conditions. Really, go read up on Earth history.

 

~

~

And the chances of that?!?

*"During the last glacial period, abrupt regional warmings
(likely up to 16°C within decades over Greenland) and
coolings occurred repeatedly over the North Atlantic
region. They likely had global linkages, such as with
major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. It is unlikely that
these events were associated with large changes in global
mean surface temperature, but instead likely involved a
redistribution of heat within the climate system associated
with changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation."

*"It is likely that earlier periods with higher than present
atmospheric CO2 concentrations were warmer than
present. This is the case both for climate states over
millions of years (e.g., in the Pliocene, about 5 to 3 Ma)
and for warm events lasting a few hundred thousand
years (i.e., the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,
55 Ma)."  Periods with many significant differences, not providing a reasonable comparison with present-day conditions. Really, go read up on Earth history

Likely this, likely that. Is this 51% likely, 75 % likely or 90% likely? The problem, Giles, is that there is NO CONFIDENCE in anything here. Some or your articles say it "may" cool or it "may not" cool. Multiply all the (un)likelies above at 51% and you get a 3% change they are right. How can politicians make policy if they cannot get real numbers? It is like saying we have two options - spend money or don't spend money (on something). If we spend money there is a 3% chance that it will do some good or maybe a 97% chance of doing some good. If we don't spend money there is a 3% chance of it doing some good or a 97% chance of it doing good. Talk about scientific scrutiny. Which one do you choose as a policymaker?

Giles' answer: the one that is the loudest.

The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty

limited range of understanding of the research.

If you're going to argue science, at least look up the definitions:

"*"In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used
to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an
outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of
occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%,Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Unlikely < 33%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5% (see Box TS.1 for more
details).."

Beyond that, I'd posit that you're putting your confidence in your limited range of understanding of the research.

OK, then how did they come

OK, then how did they come to the comclusion that "likely" is >66%? Why not >67%, since it is close to 2/3rds (another arbitrary number) than 66%. It is not as if there are exact numbers that can be assigned to these "WAGs." I can understand assigning a probablility of seeing some result if you have pure numbers like a 1 in 52 chance of drawing a 10 of hearts from a freshly shuffled deck or a 50% chance of flipping a coin to heads. I know I started in that vein, but for a purpose. Even at 67%, the chances of 5 likelies all being correct is 13.5%, which means these guys are darn close to being "very likely" wrong. And you want to put your faith in that?

The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty

go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc

"...then how did they come to the comclusion that "likely" is >66%?"

You made the choice to not go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc. 

And, ironically, one reason was to help the non-scientists reading the reports.....

Standard deviation

Standard deviation is about .68.

1 - (minus) .68 = .32.

As the outling in a normal bell shaped curve is equal  on both sides of the curve.  Therefore .32/2 = .16

As Giles isn't interested in not likely.

Add .68 to .16 = .84

Giles "Likely" senario at .66 is within the standard deviation. And within the realm of chance.

Sorry Giles. No quotes. Just math and statistics.

That .85 isn't there for no reason.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

No Quotes - No Research

You made the choice to not go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc. 

And, ironically, one reason was to help the non-scientists reading the reports.....

You made the decision to

Translation. You don't have a clue what a standard deviation is.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

translation

Amazing that your lot is so sure of their dogmatic contentions that there is no need to even look at the resources and analyze and think.

Too bad, since that behavior shows to the world as a lack of cognitive integrity. But it probably helps keep insulated from the rigors of the real world.

You're hinging all bets on a few hacks, a few disparate pieces of work that have little substance and no reputable support. 

Making unfortunate choices - like not bothering to do a thorough reading of the literature, looking for reputable mentors, analyzing your thinking - have  a profound effect on making any sort of rational decision. 

"It is one of the essential features of such incompetence that the person
so afflicted is incapable of knowing that he is incompetent. To have
such knowledge would already be to remedy a good portion of the
offense." Justin Kruger and David Dunning Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

 

Translation: You still

Translation: You still don't know what a standard deviation is. 

Then shifts to the AGW tactic of attacking.

I hope you had fun at the Narcissistic Personality Disorder convention..

 

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

score !

danbo: 2

giles: 0

 

Note to Giles: The preceeding isn't statistics, it's just a tally of how many times dando has demonstrated your cluelessness.

focus on SD rather than point to any research

Interesting that you've chosen to focus on SD rather than point to any research demonstrating that the IPCC conclusions, and /or the strength ratings are inaccurate.

Guess that's what floats your boat. 

Still don't know what

Still don't know what standard deviation is do you?

You might want to study some statistics. And validity testing.

I explained it above. 

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

Thanks for prattling on about SD

Thanks for prattling on about SD rather than focusing on the content of link. Or the topic at hand.

But both are exemplified by a lack of support for a misguided opinion.

Translation. Giles still

Translation. Giles still doesn't understand standard deviation.  

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

Sure he does!  Giles knows

Sure he does!  Giles knows that Michael Jackson is standard deviation.

Likely is 66%? You have to

Likely is 66%? You have to be kidding? Even without  playing games with adjustments to data. This isn't much more than a coin toss. Usually you reserve likely to at least 85 or 90% confidence. No wonder it doesn't make sense to me.

Thank you Giles for a revelation. I really do thank you.

PS Don't forget coorelations do not imply causality.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

I think we've dumbed down

I think we've dumbed down statistics. 

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

come to the comclusion

Read the science; rather than jump to some asinine 'comclusion' based on your lack of understanding of the basics.

Plenty of stuff at >90%, btw. 

But, as normal, no cites of any science, just must be a whole lot easier to prove a point without it.

What science?!? Everything

What science?!? Everything you have posted are WAGs. Who defined the percentages? Why did they use the work "likely" instead of "very likely?" Science comes from the Latin root scio, which means to know. It does not mean to maybe know. Why can't anyone come right out and tell us the facts? Because they don't want to tell us they don't know.

The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty

You were the one defining

You were the one defining "Likely" as >66%. Not me

"Likely" can be a statistical or scientific term as can statistically significant; or it can be just a descriptive word without statistical conotation. If we're to use it as a statistical term. Common protocol would be to define the variables and statistical test utilized.

Saying you're 95% certain is easy. Saying what variables you tested and the test utilized is a different matter.

I liked your definition of  "More likely than not" as >50%.

Thanks again for an insight into the world of warmer science.

A 95% statistically significant level, though something to look at does not prove or imply causality. Something warmers can't seem to grasp.

Thanks again.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

You said " Read the

You said " Read the science". Giles , I have. You just don't like that I disagree..

You said. "as normal, no cites of any science'. Giles have you ever taken a statistics course? Do you know the probability of an honest coin toss? 50%.

If the best you have is I have no science post on this. You lose.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

a Quote from RC

"Inhabitants of the denialsphere like clearthinker and poptech have no
interest in learning about climate science. They are trying to attack
legitimate climate scientists like Dr. Schmidt using rhetorical tricks.
They have not presented a single scientific idea that refutes or even
brings AGW into question. Dr. Schmidt has been dishonestly smeared by
both them and Matthew Sheppard on NB, using smear tactics, innuendo,
and unsupported claims
. Sheppard is a climate hack, who states that he
has written many climate science articles but doesn’t come to
Realclimate with all his knowledge. It’s pretty obvious that any real
contrarian science ideas could simply be presented here for critique.
Sheppard’s real purpose is to slander legitimate climate scientists,
calling them “alarmists.”
He has implied that Dr Schmidt may have been
dishonest with some climate science data, a really disgusting and
despicable tactic. He Never brings his claims to realclimate."

 Gee if that's what's

 Gee if that's what's being said about us. I take it as a badge of honor. Obviously they couldn't handle us without attacks. Which has been your mode when people disagree and don't do your bidding. Little wonder they run from the big guns.

Please have fun trying to figure out what the standard deviation is and how it applies in science. It may be enlightening.

As this thread is about to go to the 3rd page it's likely I won't come back many more times.

Please feel free to post a scathing rebuke of me so you can get the last word in.

Oh I'm sorry that's what you were doing here. I guess you'll have to do another one.

Who was the speaker at the Narcissistic personalities convention?

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

I am wondering if Giles

I am wondering if Giles will ever answer this question I asked him yesterday:

If 70% of the temperature monitoring stations in the US are off by greater then 2 degrees, would you consider the data they produce reasonably accurate?

The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty

The sad part. The US

The sad part. The US stations are likely the good part of the chain. And it's a small chain. 

By shifting GISS smoothing radius from their default of 1500km to 250km you get an idea as to how much is missing data. Here

 By comparison the data base for 1960 was a lot better. GISS for whatever reason is using less data.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

danbo

danbo,

What I find funny in that quote is the idea that I should be going to RC to debate those folks. Forgive me, but I'm the associate editor HERE. Why would I go to the world's leading climate alarmist website to fight with climate alarmists?

That would be as foolish a waste of time as an atheist going to the Vatican to debate the existence of God with the Pope!

Furthermore, nobody there questions why Schmidt, rather than posting a hit piece on me at RC, didn't respond to my original piece HERE!!!

It seems this is more delicious irony escaping these folks that have so many wonderful designations after their names implying superior intellect.

As for Giles, isn't it fascinating that rather than address the standard deviation question he's been asked several times, he's citing defamatory comments from RC about us? Now THAT's entertainment. ns

Their science is to deny

Their science is to deny any disagreement or any disagreeing fact. And attempting to intimidate or discredit any discent. Not very honest. 

I wish I could have used a confidence level of .66. I could have found a whole lot of connections. Of course it would have been garbage. And I see we have another wonderful new confidence level. .5= More likely than not.

But then I'm just avoiding science

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.

Giles. If the

Giles. If the definitions of probilities are on your link. On which page? I'm having trouble finding it.

I admit I have trouble trusting IPCC. But I have to admit. I can't believe their standards are that low.

Limited Disclosure:  I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.