The next time some media member says something stupid like "the global warming debate is over," or "the science is settled," consider the firestorm that was set off by a tiny NewsBusters article playfully titled "Clean Air Causes Global Warming, Global Warming Causes Smog." Although it is now two weeks since this was first published, folks at NewsBusters and RealClimate -- as well as an "esteemed" NASA scientist -- continue to bicker about its contents and meaning.
In fact, as of Thursday evening, NASA's Gavin Schmidt was still battling to make his point:
I have never insinuated that Sheppard didn’t know what photochemical means. I have merely pointed out that he doesn’t understand the differences between ozone and aerosols, or tropospheric and stratospheric ozone. And now you are blaming Reuters for you and Sheppard’s inability to read more than two lines in to an article.If the "debate was over" and the "science settled," why would one of the world's leading climate alarmists be arguing "the differences between ozone and aerosols, or tropospheric and stratospheric ozone" with strangers, while trying to make the point that someone he's never met or spoken to is unaware of such distinctions due to poor reading comprehension skills?
Considering the hundreds of articles I've written concerning the way anthropogenic global warming is being reported around the world -- including numerous exposés about how the NASA unit Schmidt works for might be involved in manipulating temperature data -- it seems extraordinary that a somewhat satirical, 577-word frolic - with almost half consisting of quotes from cited sources - generated so much discussion and consternation.
After all, it should go without saying that if you can't see the irony in one study claiming cleaner air in Europe is largely responsible for rising temperatures, and another concluding that global warming is increasing smog, you must either be too close to this subject or completely lacking a sense of humor.
That "clean air" and smog might be scientifically unrelated in technical terms is irrelevant. Probably less than five percent of the world's population knows the difference between the two, and likely less than one percent can explain the disparities between photochemical smog and smog.
Moreover, probably less than one percent understands that aerosols in the air refer to particulate matter and not what comes out of their Right Guard cans.
Yet, those familiar with my writing and fastidious attention to research and detail are well aware that I am part of the knowing percentages estimated in the preceding paragraphs.
This, in my view, made the Reuters and NewScientist pieces, and their timing, so ironic as well as newsworthy from a media analysis perspective. After all, NewsBusters is INDEED a media analysis website.
Yet, this seemed lost in Schmidt's July 12 RC posting wherein he referred to my article as "nonsense," "boneheaded," "foolishness," and "dumb," while concluding that for me "complexity is something to be abused rather than a challenge to be understood."
All that anger over a 577-word trifle that comically concluded with the much-quoted punch line of a 1970s margarine commercial - "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature" - which even included a link to a video of the ad so that people who didn't remember the reference could get the joke?
C'mon! Even if humor isn't your strong suit, how much "complexity" would you expect from a 577-word article anyway? After all, it took Schmidt 922 words to debase it -- not to mention the time he and his followers have devoted to trashing it and me since his piece was posted -- and frankly, I don't think he did a very good job.
Now, almost two weeks later, this item that probably took me all of ten minutes to put together -- and required less functioning brain cells than what are supposedly destroyed by consuming one domestic beer! -- has taken on a life of its own as evident in a recent RC comment by Schmidt himself:
My point in the above piece was that Sheppard didn't know what he was talking about, and yet saw fit to pontificate at great length on the perfidy of scientists.
Great length? The non-quoted text in my "pontification" amounts to 292 words. To loosely paraphrase Jack Palance in the hit 1991 film "City Slickers" (admittedly a stretch, but what I'd like to say might be inappropriate for a family website!), I've had belches last longer. If this is what Schmidt considers great length, it further brings into question the veracity of his infamous climate models which are so at the foundation of the entire global warming myth.
As to perfidy, if Schmidt thinks my introductory quip "In today's 'People Can Prove Whatever They Want If They Really Try Hard Enough' moment" rises to the level of accusing the folks involved in these studies of perpetrating a fraud, he's lacking signficantly more than a sense of humor.
Does this mean I am employing the John Kerry botched joke defense? Not at all, for there was a serious point attempting to be made amidst the levity.
But, those that couldn't detect the obvious comedic bouquet - assuming, of course, they even read the article in question, and didn't just take Schmidt's debasement as gospel - should ask themselves "Why?"
After all, this was clearly an opinion piece intentionally lacking "complexity" designed to tickle the intellect...if not the intellectual.
For instance, wasn't this Swiss study fascinating in that it found Europe's clean air efforts resulted in at least 50 percent of that continent's 1°C rise in temperatures since 1980?
Wouldn't that mean that less than half of the warming in Europe during this same period could possibly be attributed to rising CO2 levels if such was your wont? With this in mind, how much of America's rising temperatures since the mid-'70s could be traced to her efforts to eradicate pollution?
Think about it: If American and European desires to clean their respective air have INDEED resulted in higher temperatures in both regions, mightn't this be a factor to consider as it pertains to global warming?
Schmidt dismissed this in his hit piece on me claiming Europe isn't the globe. An RC commenter supported his position by stating that since Europe only makes up five percent of the earth's total landmass, its numbers are irrelevant in determining a global average.
Not to pick nits, but Europe's landmass is actually 6.8 percent of earth's non-water total. Now, throw in the U.S. - the third or fourth largest nation (up for dispute) behind Russia and Canada - and if its temperature increases since 1980 are also more a result of its anti-pollution efforts than rising carbon dioxide levels, isn't this important? Or, are temperatures in America and Europe really too small a percentage to be concerned with as it pertains to global warming?
As I pointed out in my July 18 piece, regardless of the percentages involved, if this Swiss study is right, rising temperatures caused by cleaner air on any part of the planet do indeed increase the average. The idea that folks are contesting this - here goes my overblown sense of humor again! - is rather hysterical.
What I also seem to be alone in finding fascinating is the possibility that our efforts to protect ozone and reduce smog - whether aerosols are involved or not! - might have led to cleaner air which has warmed parts of the planet and potentially resulted in, according to the EPA, increased photochemical smog.
Schmidt scoffed at this. And yet, as I demonstrated in my July 18 piece, in America the legislation enacted to comply with the Montreal Protocol - the Clean Air Act of 1990 - did INDEED result in cleaner air here and NOT just reductions in ozone depleting sources. As it is possible that other nations around the world also used Protocol compliance to further their anti-pollution efforts, it is by no means farfetched to suggest that the Montreal Protocol resulted in cleaner air in some parts of the world and NOT just a reduction of CFCs.
Yet, two weeks later, Schmidt is still fighting this issue :
Hmmm.... so let's see. Perhaps Sheppard's use of the term "chicken and egg conundrum" is unfamiliar to you? It refers to something (X) causing something else (Y) which goes on to cause X over again. What are the somethings to which Sheppard refers?
In an interesting chicken and the egg conundrum, scientists in America claimed Thursday that global warming causes smog.So, cleaning the air causes global warming - which ends up leading to higher levels of smog?
It's pretty clear from this sentence that Y="global warming". X is first "clearing the air" (referring to the reports on the GRL aerosols paper), and yet at the end, X is clearly 'smog' (referring to the press about the EPA ozone report). So if Sheppard is not equating the two, perhaps you would care to explain what is chicken and what is egg? It can't be aerosols, because the EPA report does not suggest the warming increases aerosols. And it can't be ozone because ozone is a greenhouse gas and clearing it from the air would lead to a cooling not a warming. Do please enlighten me.
Let me try, Gavin: you're looking at this like a Vulcan and NOT a human being. The entire flight deck of the Enterprise is laughing their heads off as the credits roll, and you're frowning at the camera because the punch line was "illogical."
Imagine for a moment -- if it's at all possible! -- you're NOT a climate modeler trying to spread global warming hysteria around the world, and, like probably 99 percent or more of the population, you don't know the intricate scientific differences between clean air, dirty air, aerosols, smog, and photochemical smog.
Under this scenario, here's the chicken and the egg conundrum that should be tremendously obvious -- as well as FUNNY! -- if you weren't working so hard to defend your dogma: air dirty; man cleans air; cleaner air causes global warming; global warming causes smog; air dirty again.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Is this scientifically accurate? No, but that wasn't the point, and those suggesting it was are either doing so disingenuously to discredit a writer that has suddenly become a threat to their cause, or are so lacking a sense of humor that they should do us all a favor and stick to reading technical papers and journals.
When all the aerosols clear, my July 11 article was intended to make people smile while they think. It appears the contentiousness surrounding this debate makes this as tough for some as walking and chewing gum at the same time.
For what it's worth, I also find this extremely amusing, and aren't the slightest bit concerned if I'm doing a Billy Idol impersonation...with apologies in advance to those that don't get that joke either.
—Noel Sheppard is the Associate Editor of NewsBusters. Follow him at Facebook and Twitter.




















Editor at Large
Comments Policy
Noel, you knew exactly what you were doing...
July 25, 2008 - 14:55 ET by bubbatech01to Schmidt, pushing him. you were playing him like a puppet and you know it. i mean, i love the fact that an "esteemed" scientist basically got caught with his pants down and now, instead of attacking the message, he is attacking the messenger (which global warming alarmists love to do).
Keep pushing him, Noel, we are loving the train wreck!!
good point
July 25, 2008 - 17:11 ET by ort777Right on, bubba. So many times in debating the AGW supporters, you can corner them and defeat them on a particular topic but then they'll resort to "but we have to do something or else" or "shouldn't we err on the side of being safe" or something about big oil, Pres. Bush, etc., etc. The debate rarely stays civil. In the debates I've been involved, their side always resorts to childish tactics, mostly namecalling.
Boy Noel. He is really
July 25, 2008 - 15:11 ET by bassndudeBoy Noel. He is really miffed at you:-)
Save a SeAL, club a liberal!!
Kinda makes you understand
July 25, 2008 - 15:27 ET by ApacheKinda makes you understand why they won't debate scientists. Just launch insults and smear other's works from their cave.
"The debate is over",
July 25, 2008 - 15:34 ET by Schnikeys"The debate is over", translated, merely means "We think we're right, and so should you."
But we don't live in Oceania, and they're not the thought police.
------------------------------------------------------------
"It could be the answer to our age-old, philosophical question, 'Why are we here?' PLASTIC!"
If you have the time, and I
July 25, 2008 - 15:37 ET by HermanoIf you have the time, and I mean a lot of it, it is definitely worth checking out the link at the top of Noel's piece. It is the response to Schmidt's rant. At one point in the comments, abeauitifulperson, while trying to be cute, brought up that he went to RealClimate to see what it was all about. He posted a rebuke of NB on that site and this started an effort by several NB posters to find out more about AGW from RC's perspective. There is a link to that RC thread in the posting. My conclusions to the whole entertaining ordeal is that RC may know some math, but they do not know everything.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
Actually, Noel, the fact
July 25, 2008 - 15:41 ET by robert108Actually, Noel, the fact that this so-called "scientist" is reduced to attacking you personally is the sure sign that you are right on target. This is what lefties do when you refute them with facts: they go personal. To paraphrase Ann Coulter: if you're not making leftie heads explode, you're not doing it right.
Robert
July 25, 2008 - 15:55 ET by Noel SheppardRobert,
Well, and especially the fact that he chose to attack a piece with so much obvious levity in it. He's completely ignored all the totally serious pieces I've written on this issue the past three years, including those dealing with the NASA unit he works for.
Why go after this trifle? Because by ignoring the humor that's involved, it's easy to make the suggestions appear flawed. After all, two days earlier I wrote a piece called "Is Wikipedia Promoting Global Warming Hysteria?" Why didn't he go after that, especially since his website PROMOTES Wikipedia as a resource?
Reason: because it's easy to make someone with his tongue in his cheek look foolish if you analyze his partially satirical piece from a purely factual perspective. And, since he knows very few people click on links to articles he cites, he can do this with almost total impunity. ns
Noel: Because AGW is such a
July 25, 2008 - 16:18 ET by robert108Noel: Because AGW is such a central tenet of the lefties, and such an obvious article of faith for them, they have absolutely no sense of humor about it. Not that they have much of a sense of humor about any of their ideological stances, of course. They really just want to eliminate any diversity of opinion; they are essentially totalitarians.
NS
July 25, 2008 - 16:23 ET by BlondeWow....
Pic's of Mother Nature, Right Guard, F'ing & Spock .....all in the same post.
I am impressed.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
B
July 25, 2008 - 16:29 ET by Noel SheppardB,
I aim to please. After all, even though I had a link to the video of that Chiffon ad in the piece that started all this, some of the supposedly brightest minds in our nation -- you know, those folks with all the impressive letters after their names that dupe people like abeautifulperson!!! -- couldn't between them recognize the levity.
With this in mind, I thought pictures and embedded videos might help them this time! :-) ns
Well, NS
July 25, 2008 - 16:35 ET by BlondeIt certainly helped me....add some fun to my day.
Thanks!
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
I fear if you are not
July 25, 2008 - 17:04 ET by ApacheI fear if you are not careful, Schmidt will put on some space diapers, throw some masking tape, pepper spray, and a BB gun in the trunk, and head toward your house in order to talk to you about global warming. :D
I can see some of the users
July 25, 2008 - 16:42 ET by SchnikeysI can see some of the users with whom you were arguing responding with "Well, your mom was no laughing matter last night! HAH!"
------------------------------------------------------------
"It could be the answer to our age-old, philosophical question, 'Why are we here?' PLASTIC!"
Ideas have consequences
July 25, 2008 - 16:50 ET by TruthMattersIdeas have consequences Mr. Schmidt. If we think your ideas about AGW stink, then we are obliged to break out the aerosol can to make things smell better (Yes, Mr. Schmidt, I understand the aerosol/particulates issue. It's a joke...no need to correct me.)
Good Job Noel! Keep up the good work!
RC losing face...
July 25, 2008 - 17:04 ET by Clear thinkerIt was the response that 'abeautifulperson' posted about what Real Climate was saying that led me to visit their site because I was interested to see what type of people were attacking Noel.
Once there, I could not keep my mouth shut because of they way Noel, and NB was being portrayed. Soooo...I did ask Schmidt a question concerning Noel's piece and was immediately accused of shilling for Noel and this site. It's been all down hill from there.
I know that Noel is more than capable of going toe to toe with Schmidt concerning what he had written, so I left the Noel piece to Noel and started to ask other questions. I'm not going to give a play-by-play because it's all in writing on RC and here at NB, but I will give you my impression. I am now considered a crack-pot because I have the audacity to question RC's science, and I'm being vilified because I am not refering to Schmidt as "Dr. Gavin Schmidt". However, I have been very civil by addressing him as Mr. Schmidt. Why do I do this? I have been told by more than one of their posters, that someone in his position of authority demands respect and should be addressed as 'Doctor'. Sorry folks, for me that respect has to be earned, not just demanded and granted. Not only has he himself been rude to me and treated me like a child, many of the posters there have been brutal. You can check for yourself, I have been nothing but civil. It's as if I have told them that their God is a fraud.
I have more to say, but I must leave for the evening.
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
RC is delusional
July 25, 2008 - 19:48 ET by PopularTechClear, don't feel bad I have now been accused of all sorts of scientific injustices because they cannot understand that Noel was simply contrasting clean air vs. smog - even after I defined the word. They are dead set that Noel did a scientific analysis, read the full EPA report and is a scientific illiterate all by continuing to state things he never said. I am now considered "hysterical" for trying to explain to them Noel's context and word usage.
As for Gavin, I will continue to call him Gavin.
The Anti 'Man-Made' Global Warming Resource
Wonder when the next
July 25, 2008 - 20:00 ET by general companyWonder when the next story about NB will come out of those folks.
We should start a spin off blog to discount and debate with these folks. They are so silly, it could rival reality TV. : ]
Realclimatedebate.com?
"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg
general company...
July 25, 2008 - 23:15 ET by Clear thinkerYou should check out Gavins latest thread titled "Once more into the bray". It mostly attacks Monckton, but takes a few shots at us deniers as if we are the devil re-incarnated. Some of it, if you read between the lines, is directed at NB.
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
When I said we, I really meant you folks
July 25, 2008 - 23:27 ET by general companyThanks CT, wish I had more time so I could help. I have alerted a few folks to it though. They are waking up. : ]
"Television is a freak show" Bernie Goldberg
gc...
July 25, 2008 - 23:35 ET by Clear thinkerTwo thumbs up!
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
Clear,
July 25, 2008 - 20:25 ET by Indiana JoeI especially liked where some questions you asked were answered with "go here, read this, study the other." You would think that folks with so much knowledge (much more than we mere mortals) would be able to explain their points. But it's apparently beneath them.
And after whining about "name-calling" and "petty bickering" here, these gems were tossed out at either you or PopTech (and Noel, btw):
-it is ignorance; and it it is done with purpose then it is dishonest and likely dishonorable.
-more experience in critical thinking than yourself for example
-So if you have an audience that can not see the forest through the trees because you are generating fog to obscure vision, then newsbusters is guilty, whether they realize it or not, of the highest form of treason I can think of, ‘purposeful academic dishonesty’. [ Honest, AGW acolytes decrying "purposeful academic dishonesty" while pretty much practicing it! Oh, the irony!]
-But I would never expect such a site to have any integrity or honor
And finally, even Gavin had enough. This from that great "centrist," John P. Reisman:
-[edit - too ad hom, please stick to issues not people]
Woo! It was like "Mr. Toad's Wild Ride" going there. And they're not interested in informing or debating. They just want to stand in a circle and... (will he say it?)
...pat each other on the back.
Naturally, LEON was there! ;^D
IJ re: RC...
July 25, 2008 - 23:26 ET by Clear thinkerFor me, one of the most condenscending posts were the ones where I was told to start reading at their "start here" link, and informed I needed to read the part about 'how to ask a scientist a question'. That particular piece was a hoot, but you could tell by the way the author wrote it that he arrogantly dead serious. As you can tell from my bold highlights, this one really pissed me off. Who the hell do they think they are? If I remember my biology from school correctly, their crap stinks just like yours and mine. It's still a free country we live in so I will ask a question any damn way I please!
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
CT Do you have a link for
July 26, 2008 - 07:12 ET by danboCT Do you have a link for "How to Ask a Sientist a Question".
Though I don't call myself a scientist, I was pretty good in research and would like to see this.
Thanks.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Yeah, try google.com. OK,
July 26, 2008 - 11:25 ET by RukusYeah, try google.com. OK, I'm being a smart a$$. I did that and came up with all kinds of ask the scientist stuff. Funny thing though dan, RC wasn't mentioned. LOL! Good job busting their chops. Sorry for the smart a$$ reply above... not enough coffee this morning...:)
"Nuke 'em 'til they... oh hell, just shoot 'em!"
It was a specific article.
July 26, 2008 - 12:52 ET by danboIt was a specific article. I'm not interested in the others. And to be honest, I'm a little lazy and didn't want to weed through the bs at ReallyScaredClimatologist.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
How To Ask Questions the Smart Way
July 26, 2008 - 14:27 ET by Giles WinterbourneHow To Ask Questions the Smart Way (as linked from RC) or alternate site
"Don't claim you've found a bug
When you're having problems with a piece of software,
don't claim you've found a bug, unless you're very,
very sure of your
ground. Hint: Unless you can provide a source-code patch
fixing the problem, or a regression test against a
previous version that demonstrates incorrect behaviour, you're
probably not sure enough. This applies to Web pages and
documentation, too; if you've found a documentation bug,
you should supply replacement text and a note as to which
pages it should go on.
Remember, many other users aren't
experiencing your problem. Otherwise, you would have learned
about it while reading the documentation and searching the
Web. (You did do that before complaining, didn't you?) This means that
very probably it's you who're doing something wrong, not
the software."
Sorry Giles, If that's the
July 26, 2008 - 17:19 ET by danboSorry Giles, If that's the site it's worse than I thought.
We're not here asking you or Gavin to solve a problem for us. Or to debug a program. We have our own information. As you've seen and often ignored, or just repeat the mantra. Statements are being made and Gavin and RC are being asked to substantiate it. And not play word games.
As I stated in one post. (Not a question.) One that Gavin did not post. Opinion often masquarades as fact. And only by allowing all to speak can people sort through and find fact.
As Gavin said before when people were asking for a discussion of why GISS varied so much from the others. (Yes I also read RC) He didn't want to get into the reasons why there were different opinions on tempertures. (I'm paraphrasing) So is GISS; opinion or fact? It seems to depend on the situation and reason for asking.
However, it is apparent that this article is the Gavin Schmidt approach. "making it clear that you are able and willing to help in the process of developing the solution". Translation. You agree with me. And you will help me farther my cause. Welcome. We see a lot of that at RC. Otherwise don't expect a reply.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
paraphrasing or MSU?
July 26, 2008 - 21:50 ET by Giles WinterbourneEssentially, the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is 'claiming to have found a bug' - insinuating that all the research and data that shows the effects of human added CO2 is incorrect. The 'source code' or 'patch' that is on offer from the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is most often not published or in non-reputable journals - the 'fix' doesn't work. That is also evident in the lack of use of those rare bits of 'source code' or 'patches' that did get published being cited in further reputable research, furthering the climate science knowledgebase.
If you don't like how Dr. Schmidt or others respond, perhaps you'd be happier arguing those DDS points on other blogs:
"Essentially, the
July 27, 2008 - 10:32 ET by danbo"Essentially, the denier/delayer/skeptic camp is 'claiming to have found a bug' - insinuating that all the research and data that shows the effects of human added CO2 is incorrect."
Sorry Giles. That's your denial.
Many of the very graphs you've posted here show periods that were warmer. You just refuse to see it. In addition there is physical evidence. If you can't demonstrate an unusual condition, you have nothing.
Computer programs or evidence? I'm going with evidence.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
unsupported screed that hasn't held up to scientific scrutiny
July 27, 2008 - 12:20 ET by Giles Winterbourne"Many of the very graphs you've posted here show periods that were warmer."
As normal, a vague, contentless, and unsupported screed based on a denier meme that hasn't held up to any sort of scientific scrutiny. One that doesn't further any discussion.
*"During the last glacial period, abrupt regional warmings
(likely up to 16°C within decades over Greenland) and
coolings occurred repeatedly over the North Atlantic
region. They likely had global linkages, such as with
major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. It is unlikely that
these events were associated with large changes in global
mean surface temperature, but instead likely involved a
redistribution of heat within the climate system associated
with changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation."
*"It is likely that earlier periods with higher than present
atmospheric CO2 concentrations were warmer than
present. This is the case both for climate states over
millions of years (e.g., in the Pliocene, about 5 to 3 Ma)
and for warm events lasting a few hundred thousand
years (i.e., the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,
55 Ma)." Periods with many significant differences, not providing a reasonable comparison with present-day conditions. Really, go read up on Earth history.
~
July 27, 2008 - 12:33 ET by Free Stinker~
And the chances of that?!?
July 27, 2008 - 13:08 ET by Hermano*"During the last glacial period, abrupt regional warmings
(likely up to 16°C within decades over Greenland) and
coolings occurred repeatedly over the North Atlantic
region. They likely had global linkages, such as with
major shifts in tropical rainfall patterns. It is unlikely that
these events were associated with large changes in global
mean surface temperature, but instead likely involved a
redistribution of heat within the climate system associated
with changes in the Atlantic Ocean circulation."
*"It is likely that earlier periods with higher than present
atmospheric CO2 concentrations were warmer than
present. This is the case both for climate states over
millions of years (e.g., in the Pliocene, about 5 to 3 Ma)
and for warm events lasting a few hundred thousand
years (i.e., the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,
55 Ma)." Periods with many significant differences, not providing a reasonable comparison with present-day conditions. Really, go read up on Earth history
Likely this, likely that. Is this 51% likely, 75 % likely or 90% likely? The problem, Giles, is that there is NO CONFIDENCE in anything here. Some or your articles say it "may" cool or it "may not" cool. Multiply all the (un)likelies above at 51% and you get a 3% change they are right. How can politicians make policy if they cannot get real numbers? It is like saying we have two options - spend money or don't spend money (on something). If we spend money there is a 3% chance that it will do some good or maybe a 97% chance of doing some good. If we don't spend money there is a 3% chance of it doing some good or a 97% chance of it doing good. Talk about scientific scrutiny. Which one do you choose as a policymaker?
Giles' answer: the one that is the loudest.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
limited range of understanding of the research.
July 27, 2008 - 13:50 ET by Giles WinterbourneIf you're going to argue science, at least look up the definitions:
"*"In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used
to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an
outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of
occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%,Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Unlikely < 33%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5% (see Box TS.1 for more
details).."
Beyond that, I'd posit that you're putting your confidence in your limited range of understanding of the research.
OK, then how did they come
July 27, 2008 - 14:24 ET by HermanoOK, then how did they come to the comclusion that "likely" is >66%? Why not >67%, since it is close to 2/3rds (another arbitrary number) than 66%. It is not as if there are exact numbers that can be assigned to these "WAGs." I can understand assigning a probablility of seeing some result if you have pure numbers like a 1 in 52 chance of drawing a 10 of hearts from a freshly shuffled deck or a 50% chance of flipping a coin to heads. I know I started in that vein, but for a purpose. Even at 67%, the chances of 5 likelies all being correct is 13.5%, which means these guys are darn close to being "very likely" wrong. And you want to put your faith in that?
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc
July 27, 2008 - 19:19 ET by Giles Winterbourne"...then how did they come to the comclusion that "likely" is >66%?"
You made the choice to not go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc.
And, ironically, one reason was to help the non-scientists reading the reports.....
Standard deviation
July 27, 2008 - 19:49 ET by danboStandard deviation is about .68.
1 - (minus) .68 = .32.
As the outling in a normal bell shaped curve is equal on both sides of the curve. Therefore .32/2 = .16
As Giles isn't interested in not likely.
Add .68 to .16 = .84
Giles "Likely" senario at .66 is within the standard deviation. And within the realm of chance.
Sorry Giles. No quotes. Just math and statistics.
That .85 isn't there for no reason.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
No Quotes - No Research
July 27, 2008 - 21:34 ET by Giles WinterbourneYou made the choice to not go read how (and why) IPCC used 'very likely', etc.
And, ironically, one reason was to help the non-scientists reading the reports.....
You made the decision to
July 27, 2008 - 22:08 ET by danboTranslation. You don't have a clue what a standard deviation is.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
translation
July 28, 2008 - 02:13 ET by Giles WinterbourneAmazing that your lot is so sure of their dogmatic contentions that there is no need to even look at the resources and analyze and think.
Too bad, since that behavior shows to the world as a lack of cognitive integrity. But it probably helps keep insulated from the rigors of the real world.
You're hinging all bets on a few hacks, a few disparate pieces of work that have little substance and no reputable support.
Making unfortunate choices - like not bothering to do a thorough reading of the literature, looking for reputable mentors, analyzing your thinking - have a profound effect on making any sort of rational decision.
"It is one of the essential features of such incompetence that the person
so afflicted is incapable of knowing that he is incompetent. To have
such knowledge would already be to remedy a good portion of the
offense." Justin Kruger and David Dunning Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Translation: You still
July 28, 2008 - 07:40 ET by danboTranslation: You still don't know what a standard deviation is.
Then shifts to the AGW tactic of attacking.
I hope you had fun at the Narcissistic Personality Disorder convention..
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
score !
July 28, 2008 - 07:49 ET by Free Stinkerdanbo: 2
giles: 0
Note to Giles: The preceeding isn't statistics, it's just a tally of how many times dando has demonstrated your cluelessness.
focus on SD rather than point to any research
July 28, 2008 - 10:56 ET by Giles WinterbourneInteresting that you've chosen to focus on SD rather than point to any research demonstrating that the IPCC conclusions, and /or the strength ratings are inaccurate.
Guess that's what floats your boat.
Still don't know what
July 28, 2008 - 11:48 ET by danboStill don't know what standard deviation is do you?
You might want to study some statistics. And validity testing.
I explained it above.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Thanks for prattling on about SD
July 28, 2008 - 12:07 ET by Giles WinterbourneThanks for prattling on about SD rather than focusing on the content of link. Or the topic at hand.
But both are exemplified by a lack of support for a misguided opinion.
Translation. Giles still
July 28, 2008 - 12:34 ET by danboTranslation. Giles still doesn't understand standard deviation.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Sure he does! Giles knows
July 28, 2008 - 15:53 ET by NL207Sure he does! Giles knows that Michael Jackson is standard deviation.
Likely is 66%? You have to
July 27, 2008 - 14:51 ET by danboLikely is 66%? You have to be kidding? Even without playing games with adjustments to data. This isn't much more than a coin toss. Usually you reserve likely to at least 85 or 90% confidence. No wonder it doesn't make sense to me.
Thank you Giles for a revelation. I really do thank you.
PS Don't forget coorelations do not imply causality.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
I think we've dumbed down
July 27, 2008 - 14:57 ET by danboI think we've dumbed down statistics.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
come to the comclusion
July 27, 2008 - 15:42 ET by Giles WinterbourneRead the science; rather than jump to some asinine 'comclusion' based on your lack of understanding of the basics.
Plenty of stuff at >90%, btw.
But, as normal, no cites of any science, just must be a whole lot easier to prove a point without it.
What science?!? Everything
July 27, 2008 - 16:04 ET by HermanoWhat science?!? Everything you have posted are WAGs. Who defined the percentages? Why did they use the work "likely" instead of "very likely?" Science comes from the Latin root scio, which means to know. It does not mean to maybe know. Why can't anyone come right out and tell us the facts? Because they don't want to tell us they don't know.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
You were the one defining
July 27, 2008 - 16:38 ET by danboYou were the one defining "Likely" as >66%. Not me
"Likely" can be a statistical or scientific term as can statistically significant; or it can be just a descriptive word without statistical conotation. If we're to use it as a statistical term. Common protocol would be to define the variables and statistical test utilized.
Saying you're 95% certain is easy. Saying what variables you tested and the test utilized is a different matter.
I liked your definition of "More likely than not" as >50%.
Thanks again for an insight into the world of warmer science.
A 95% statistically significant level, though something to look at does not prove or imply causality. Something warmers can't seem to grasp.
Thanks again.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
You said " Read the
July 27, 2008 - 16:50 ET by danboYou said " Read the science". Giles , I have. You just don't like that I disagree..
You said. "as normal, no cites of any science'. Giles have you ever taken a statistics course? Do you know the probability of an honest coin toss? 50%.
If the best you have is I have no science post on this. You lose.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
a Quote from RC
July 28, 2008 - 10:59 ET by Giles Winterbourne"Inhabitants of the denialsphere like clearthinker and poptech have no
interest in learning about climate science. They are trying to attack
legitimate climate scientists like Dr. Schmidt using rhetorical tricks.
They have not presented a single scientific idea that refutes or even
brings AGW into question. Dr. Schmidt has been dishonestly smeared by
both them and Matthew Sheppard on NB, using smear tactics, innuendo,
and unsupported claims. Sheppard is a climate hack, who states that he
has written many climate science articles but doesn’t come to
Realclimate with all his knowledge. It’s pretty obvious that any real
contrarian science ideas could simply be presented here for critique.
Sheppard’s real purpose is to slander legitimate climate scientists,
calling them “alarmists.” He has implied that Dr Schmidt may have been
dishonest with some climate science data, a really disgusting and
despicable tactic. He Never brings his claims to realclimate."
Gee if that's what's
July 28, 2008 - 12:05 ET by danboGee if that's what's being said about us. I take it as a badge of honor. Obviously they couldn't handle us without attacks. Which has been your mode when people disagree and don't do your bidding. Little wonder they run from the big guns.
Please have fun trying to figure out what the standard deviation is and how it applies in science. It may be enlightening.
As this thread is about to go to the 3rd page it's likely I won't come back many more times.
Please feel free to post a scathing rebuke of me so you can get the last word in.
Oh I'm sorry that's what you were doing here. I guess you'll have to do another one.
Who was the speaker at the Narcissistic personalities convention?
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
I am wondering if Giles
July 28, 2008 - 12:11 ET by HermanoI am wondering if Giles will ever answer this question I asked him yesterday:
If 70% of the temperature monitoring stations in the US are off by greater then 2 degrees, would you consider the data they produce reasonably accurate?
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
The sad part. The US
July 28, 2008 - 12:31 ET by danboThe sad part. The US stations are likely the good part of the chain. And it's a small chain.
By shifting GISS smoothing radius from their default of 1500km to 250km you get an idea as to how much is missing data. Here
By comparison the data base for 1960 was a lot better. GISS for whatever reason is using less data.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
danbo
July 28, 2008 - 12:38 ET by Noel Shepparddanbo,
What I find funny in that quote is the idea that I should be going to RC to debate those folks. Forgive me, but I'm the associate editor HERE. Why would I go to the world's leading climate alarmist website to fight with climate alarmists?
That would be as foolish a waste of time as an atheist going to the Vatican to debate the existence of God with the Pope!
Furthermore, nobody there questions why Schmidt, rather than posting a hit piece on me at RC, didn't respond to my original piece HERE!!!
It seems this is more delicious irony escaping these folks that have so many wonderful designations after their names implying superior intellect.
As for Giles, isn't it fascinating that rather than address the standard deviation question he's been asked several times, he's citing defamatory comments from RC about us? Now THAT's entertainment. ns
Their science is to deny
July 28, 2008 - 13:46 ET by danboTheir science is to deny any disagreement or any disagreeing fact. And attempting to intimidate or discredit any discent. Not very honest.
I wish I could have used a confidence level of .66. I could have found a whole lot of connections. Of course it would have been garbage. And I see we have another wonderful new confidence level. .5= More likely than not.
But then I'm just avoiding science.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Giles. If the
July 28, 2008 - 14:26 ET by danboGiles. If the definitions of probilities are on your link. On which page? I'm having trouble finding it.
I admit I have trouble trusting IPCC. But I have to admit. I can't believe their standards are that low.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
danbo, it is there - in the
July 28, 2008 - 14:35 ET by Hermanodanbo, it is there - in the footnotes. It is on the bottom right of page 3 - #6.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
Yes. I was coming back to
July 28, 2008 - 14:52 ET by danboYes. I was coming back to say I found it. Thanks.
Of course they don't say how they came up with the magical numbers. That would be asking too much.
All I can say is I'm amazed.
I owe a debt of thanks to Giles for his educating me on the quality of IPCC science. Thank you Giles.
I still like; More likely than not >.5. Why buy computers? Just use a coin.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
I think you nailed it. The
July 28, 2008 - 15:36 ET by HermanoI think you nailed it. The answer is MAGIC. I liked the more likely than not, as well. I just saw "The Dark Knight" this weekend and am reminded of Harvey Two-Face. Maybe the AGWs use a two headed coin to make their predictions - heads AGW exists, tails it doesn't.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
plodding repartee
July 27, 2008 - 19:28 ET by Giles Winterbourne"Multiply all the (un)likelies above at 51% and you get a 3% change they are right."
Reread the IPCC report and your plodding repartee - see where it stopped being logical?
Of course the IPCC wants to
July 27, 2008 - 21:13 ET by HermanoOf course the IPCC wants to make their case to policymakers so they spit out the likely, very likely and extremely likely to make it appear that things are bad and getting worse. What you and they are failing to understand is that if you are making estimates based on flawed data, then you and making flawed decisions. I do not see any science in the IPCC report you link either, so I do not see where you can start throwing science and logic in my face. You can link all you want to the AGW promoters, but they are all using the same flawed data. Logic dictates that their results will be wrong.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
IPCC report is a review of the literature
July 27, 2008 - 22:05 ET by Giles WinterbourneOh my god. Am I to seriously believe that you don't know the IPCC report is a review of the literature? That each '( Smith, 2006)' is a parenthetical, or in-text, citation referencing the original study being discussed in that sentence or paragraph? Chapter 6 has 13 pages of references. Thirteen pages, two columns, two or three lines each citing the original research. Original research published after peer-review in reputable journals. Research from scientists active in their field of expertise. Research finding data consistent with other pieces of independently done research. No science?
'flawed data' - I'm somewhat speechless. At this point, I'm assuming you are accepting any data that fits the skeptic and (muzzled term) meme, while dismissing any data used in the IPCC report? Regardless that none of the skeptics and (muzzled term)'s work holds up to scrutiny?Little done by scientists.Rarely published in any peer-reviewed journal. Or even a journal.
It is time to be a bit skeptical of the skeptical and (muzzled term) literature. At least put it to the same level of scrutiny that you've put into the research on Anthropogenic Global Warming. Assuming you have, of course.
That explains why RC posters would tend to dismiss those attemts rather summarily.
If 70% of the temperature
July 27, 2008 - 22:08 ET by HermanoIf 70% of the temperature monitoring stations in the US are off by greater then 2 degrees, would you consider the data they produce reasonably accurate?
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
It's kind of sad. He keeps
July 27, 2008 - 22:16 ET by danboIt's kind of sad. He keeps saying go read the bible. (His bible.) How can anyone disagree with the word of god?
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Hello, Giles?
July 28, 2008 - 06:56 ET by HermanoGiles, are you going to answer this one?
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
Don't you ever read or at
July 27, 2008 - 14:39 ET by danboDon't you ever read or at least look at what you toss up here?
Note the tempertures. Now I assume you'd like us all to jump on the spike in the CO2 model. But notice they use 4 ways to grasp CO2 but they really don't match do they. In fact fossil plankton really doesn't support high CO2.
To quote the article you sent...
Further:
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
danbo, it makes perfect
July 27, 2008 - 15:15 ET by Hermanodanbo, it makes perfect sense. The earth has a mechanism for heating and cooling. If it gets too hot, it begins to cool; if it gets to cool it begins to warm.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
danbo...
July 27, 2008 - 15:52 ET by Clear thinker" It is certainly true that Earth has experienced some extremes that were warmer than today, as well as much colder periods. In some cases the main factors that caused these past warm periods – and the ebb and flow of ice ages over recent millennia – are well understood, though not in all. Many of the details remain unknown. "
Which of his links leads to the above info?
Thanks!
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
Here. Limited Disclosu
July 27, 2008 - 16:01 ET by danboHere.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
From your post that I
July 26, 2008 - 17:13 ET by danboFrom your post that I will agree with.
"Describe the problem's symptoms, not your guesses".
"Describe your problem's symptoms in chronological order"
RC has some real problems with these two.
I would add, include all the variable. Not just the ones you'd like to have. (Provided you know all the variables. Which is unlikely.)
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
I don't know how you did
July 25, 2008 - 21:40 ET by danboI don't know how you did it. I think I was lucky getting banned or just had everything after the first post rejected. After a day and a half of reading and trying to get a post through, I felt like I needed a shower.
Great work Noel. If Mr Schmidt runs from you. He has to run from so many people like Lindzen, Vincent Grey, Christy, McIntyre, and the luist can go on and on.
Limited Disclosure: I used to belong to the Sierra Club untill they went crazier. Worse of all, I was bribed by Exxon with free New Orleans Saints glasses with fill ups in the 70's.
Gavin Schmidt has already
July 26, 2008 - 09:44 ET by HermanoGavin Schmidt has already relinquished the title of "Dr" by signing his responses to you "Gavin." The earned part is a little iffy. Perhaps it is defined by the relationship you have with that person. I deal with PhDs all the time. Early in the communications, unless they give me a reason to call them otherwise, I address them as Dr. So-and-so. They are usually much less formal than that an insist I call them by their first name.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
Global cooling scare!
July 26, 2008 - 05:53 ET by Parker1227With the recently acknowledged (and unpredicted) ocean currents cooling the earth enough to over-ride global warming for the next two decades; and, if those pesky sunspots stay on hiatus, then we could be headed for some serious global cooling.
That means fewer food crops and more hungry people due to shorter growing seasons.
The global warming Cassandras will then probably argue that "well, in 30 years when all this stuff goes away, then we'll really, really get hit with GW."
And everyone's answer will be, "God we hope so!"
Global cooling
July 26, 2008 - 06:58 ET by DontFeedTheTrollsif those pesky sunspots stay on hiatus, then we could be headed for some serious global cooling.
Global cooling? I got your global cooling right here!
D
Keep the ILLEGALS out, join NumbersUSA to send free faxes to your reps.
More CO2...
July 27, 2008 - 00:42 ET by Clear thinkerIf we are heading for cooler temps, I say we need to start pumping out more CO2!
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm
an experimental forecast.
July 27, 2008 - 11:24 ET by Giles Winterbourne"...recently acknowledged (and unpredicted) ocean currents cooling the
earth enough to over-ride global warming for the next two decades..."
Guessing that you mean the Keenlyside* article:
Which the denier camp thought was a bone to bring to the campfire circle with the inaccurate press coverage that "...made it appear as if a coming pause in
global warming was almost a given fact, rather than an experimental
forecast."
Discussed at:
Then, and this is almost funny, denier post after post screams that modeling doesn't work - now here is a paper based on modeling that fits their meme, and look at all the support.....
FYI: as normal, since it is a paper that, when misinterpreted, 'proves' their point, some denier blog rips the copyrighted article and posts it to their blog - yeah, that's scientific integrity
*N S Keenlyside, M Latif, J Jungclaus, L Kornblueh, E
Roeckner. (2008). Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the
North Atlantic sector. Nature, 453(7191), 84-8.
Giles
July 27, 2008 - 11:55 ET by Noel SheppardGiles,
This is your last warning: you refer to people that don't buy this myth as "deniers" again, and you will be banned. There will be NO further warnings. PERIOD!!!
This is an OFFENSIVE representation with an intentional connection to Holocaust deniers. STOP IT NOW!!! ns
can't even remotely be considered a 'myth'
July 27, 2008 - 13:45 ET by Giles WinterbourneAmazing that the entire body of research on anthropogenic global warming could even remotely be considered a 'myth'.And that is after attempting to argue that the scientists don't understand the science!
"As one of the world’s leading centres on climate change we believe it is important to address all the issues."
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica)" *
*"In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely >
95%, Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Unlikely
< 33%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5% (see Box TS.1 for more
details).."
Giles
July 27, 2008 - 13:48 ET by Noel SheppardGiles,
This is irrelevant. Stop calling people that don't believe what you do deniers or you're outta here! It's an insult. PERIOD! If you can't discuss this issue without insulting people LEAVE!!! ns
Quoting Penn...
July 27, 2008 - 15:55 ET by Clear thinker"The Earth is heating up, and human beings burning fossil fuels are the dominant cause."
The above is, in Penn's words... "bullsh*t".
45 Communist Goals for America http://www.nationmakers.com/com_goals.htm