Your humble correspondent had figured the polls would start to narrow in the final week of the campaign but this stunning new Gallup poll shows the lead in the Presidential race narrowing much more rapidly than he had assumed. The latest Gallup poll of traditional likely voters shows the race has narrowed down to 49 percent for Barack Obama and 47 percent for John McCain. Here is Gallup's explanation of this poll:
Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.
Meanwhile, over at the Daily Kos, some have nervously pooh-poohed this poll but others are starting to hit the panic button. Here is a sampling of Kossacks sweating buckets with some commentary by your humble correspondent:
I'm a tiny bit worried...Gallup narrowed slighly today..as Rachel Maddow said..someone talk me down
Would you feel better if I applied a chloroform-filled rag to your nose? That way you could sleep peacefully from now until just after the election. It will be so much less painful that way.
TALK ME DOWN AS WELL, IM FREAKING OUT
Would you also like a hit off the chloroform rag?
But most of the tracking polls today havecontracted & McCain is gaining ground & oh my god we're gonna be complacent and lose
Break open the glass case containing the panic button.
I still think McCain can`t win the electoral college but this poll madness is killing me. Pew Obama by 15 gallup 2. Makes no sense.
Have no fear. Pew is every bit as accurate as the 2004 exit polls showing that President Kerry won by a landslide.
The Gallup LV1 model is GARBAGE. Steaming garbage. It's more of a comparative exercise than anything. The electorate would have to look EXACTLY like 2004, which assumes parity between Dems and GOP. That is not accurate today by any calculation.
You've got to accentuate the positive
Eliminate the negative
Latch on to the affirmative
Don't mess with Mister In-Between
I am totally at a loss for words right now. I am completley freaked out. Is this for real?????? All of it???
We now pause to allow this Kossack to experience a Maalox moment. And now the Los Angeles Times has ever more motivation to keep that Khalidi video from being made public before the election.