Open Thread: Economic Numbers Still Not Looking Good for Obama
There have been some different numbers thrown about referring to President Obama's chances for being reelected based upon various economic indicators. If one looks at consumer spending an unemployment, the economy hasn't improved enough to assure an Obama win:
For my first variable, I took the percentage increase in real consumer spending in the last six months of the year in which the election was held, compared with the previous year's last six months. That's a more tangible sign of confidence, in my view, than surveys of confidence.
For my second variable, I examined the rate of unemployment for married males over the last six months of each election year. This provides a more continuous measure of labor's pain over the past half-century than the overall rate of unemployment, whose demographic mix has changed over time.
To compute my measure of voters' economic well-being, or VEWB, I subtracted that bad thing, the married-male unemployment rate, from the good thing, the rate of increase in real consumer spending, and got a single number. [...]
Last November, Obama's VEWB would have been the second-worst since 1956 (behind only Jimmy Carter's in 1980). Sure, the president's number could turn at least flat or maybe even positive by November, but that's quite unlikely. However, as my data show, it isn't always the economy (stupid) that determines presidential elections. But it sure helps the incumbent if the economy is healthy when he seeks a second term.
Do you think such metrics are valuable in determining a candidate's chances or are they better at predicting the past than anything else?
- NB Staff's blog
- Login to post comments
Comments
⇒ Here's the plan
Submitted by Cool Arrow on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:54am.
Seriously, here's what they are going to do.
Now that we've been carrying 99-week unemployment benefits, the weeks availability will be cut at just the right time to affect a lower unemployment number.
Yesterday it was reported those falling off the unemployment rolls at 99 weeks are rolling it over into mental disability just like a retiree rolls over a 401k.
34% of all employment-age Americans are out of work.
Cool, I just read the article
Submitted by motherbelt on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:11am.
Cool, I just read the article at the NYPost about the disability scam.
My husband is legitimately disabled because of brain damage from a ruptured aneurysm.
You would not believe the amount of paperwork from doctors, that I had to submit, to get his disability pay, first from his employer, and then SSDI.
And I keep having to re-justify, with new paperwork from doctors, every year!
The doctor's report has to actually specify that the person is "incapable" of holding ANY kind of job."
I find it hard to imagine that a lot of doctors would falsely declare people "disabled."
But apparently it's working for some.
MB, after seeing the medical
Submitted by ThisnThat on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:43pm.
MB, after seeing the medical fraud in full public display in Wisconsin last year (giving teachers a doctor's note so they could take days off to protest), I can believe anything. In addition, there are now TV commericals advertising how "you can get disability, medicare, and/or social security" at age 34.
__________
“Didn't win the Medal of Honor? Didn't even serve? Then lie about it. We'll support you." — 9th Circuit Court
With crap like this......
Submitted by jon_torlin on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:50pm.
It gives good doctors a bad name and you gotta wonder if your doctor is the same way. Even now I don't know that I can trust my doctor especially with all this ObeymeCare crap going on.(I recently changed doctors and am regretting it)
What a mess.
-Jon
Trust
Submitted by m1xram on Wed, 02/22/2012 - 3:51am.
“Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become more corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters. ” Ben Franklin
Who can you trust when people are like that? Get a high percentage of them and freedom goes away.
The opposite of Left is Freedom.
Seriously?
Submitted by jon_torlin on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:10am.
I knew it was bad, but that's double what I thought it would be.
-Jon
⇒ Granted, John
Submitted by Cool Arrow on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:15am.
The numbers include women who never had a job other than the most important calling possible.
In my humble but most
Submitted by MightyMouth on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:00am.
In my humble but most accurate opinion :-) The economic numbers are just icing on the cake. Don't get me wrong, I want the numbers to be good (after November). But if bad numbers can unseat the commie in chief, it's a price we all must pay!. And I ,for one, am willing to pay it. But that is not my point... he must be unseated for my children, and their children's, sake. It's that simple! And while we are at it...puleeezze... can we purge the Senate and House of the remaining America hating scum?
Gallup Reporting Unemployment Moving Up to 9%
Submitted by IgnatzJFahrquar on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:15am.
From mid-month indicators. Well, I'm sure those indicators will be scrubbed by next week.
A wild card will be the increasing price of fuel coming up due to Iran. High fuel prices this coming summer will add to an already cr@ppy misery index. Let's see how Comrade Zero spins this one.
Obama knows it. That's why
Submitted by motherbelt on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:17am.
Obama knows it. That's why he's scaling down expectations this time around.
No more talk about "fundamentally transorming" the country, turning back the oceans or healing the planet.
Now it's enough to just keep one's head (especially his) above water.
Comrade Zero Needs to Realize
Submitted by IgnatzJFahrquar on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:23am.
He must first remove said head from his posterior.
They'll believe it too
Submitted by jon_torlin on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:26am.
I guess his team thinks that America's been beaten down what with the unemployment and the high costs of pretty much everything that people won't care what he'll say.
I'm seeing tons of people around me, or know some who said the same that people are getting more despondent and depressed that they don't want to do anything or don't care about much right now.
That's not a little bothersome, makes it easy for bad things to happen to beat us down further.
-Jon
I disagree.
Submitted by motherbelt on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:05pm.
I guess his team thinks that America's been beaten down what with the unemployment and the high costs of pretty much everything that people won't care what he'll say.
My thought is that his approach will be that, because of the Republicans ruining everything, not to mention the mess that turned out to be....ahem....so much worse than he thought... this is the best we can hope for at this point. And even that will be gone if he doesn't win.
Update: Rush did just about
Submitted by motherbelt on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 2:45pm.
Update: Rush did just about the whole first half-hour of his 1 PM hour on this subject; I'm out of the car and back in the house so I don't know if he's still talking about it.
And he was on a TEAR! He is FURIOUS that Obama is degrading the American dream!
⇒ Instead, MB
Submitted by Cool Arrow on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:28am.
Instead, he's told a chilling tale about a secret society of men in robes and pointy hats who hate women and want them "punished with a baby" or forced into back alleys where they bleed out next to a dumpster.
Chris Matthews, herald to the President, has already pronounced bishop as the new grand dragon.
Obama 2012
Submitted by DontFeedTheTrolls on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:36am.
Two things will get Obama re-elected: lies in the MSM and the stupidity of many voters.
Obama and David Cross Cocaine Incident
Submitted by Gothampc on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:40pm.
News sources are reporting that David Cross talks about doing cocaine in Obama's presence in the new Playboy interview. (I don't want to link the Playboy article so I'm looking for someone to summarize it).
But if this is true, where is the GOP on this? Use it. You know if it was a Republican, the MSM would be all over it.
http://www.politico.com/click/stories/0910/cross_i_did_coke_at_whcd.html
⇒ Drudge
Submitted by Cool Arrow on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 1:02pm.
Drudge is developing on Santorum's claim "Satan has his sights on the United States of America"
Yeah, Rick! Like he doesn't have a mysterious "man who fell to earth" already in the White House.
Barry Obysmal Was Right About One Thing...
Submitted by Motormouth KOS on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 1:51pm.
"It's a crisis leading to a catastrophe..."
The "crisis" was Comrade Downgrade getting elected.
The "catastrophe" has been 5.7 TRILLION of deficit spending.
The Obamination... A crisis leading to a catastrophe..(please donate to MRC)
Ugly to the Bone
Submitted by HardRightTurn on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 3:45pm.
You can only put so much lipstick on a pig.
To more fully comprehend the Left, one must read “Leftism As Psychopathy” by John Ray, M.A., Ph.D. Caution, it might scare you a little bit.
http://jonjayray.tripod.com/psycho.html
Fetus Found in Sewer Pipe: Cops
Submitted by vrwc13 on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 4:41pm.
http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Fetus-Found-in-Sewer-Pipe-Cops...
"I have said often, and I am sure of it, that the greatest destroyer of peace in the world today is abortion. If a mother can kill her own child, what is there to stop you and me from killing each other? The only one who has the right to take life is the One who has created it. Nobody else has that right: not conference, no government. - Mother Teresa
The burden of life is from ourselves, its lightness from the grace of Christ and the love of God. - William Bernard Ullanthorne
EPA, Edict: All sewer piping shall have increased diameters.
Submitted by upcountrywater on Tue, 02/21/2012 - 8:41pm.
It wouldn't be a crime scene at the planned parenthood...
You Didn't Build That.
Cooked Books
Submitted by m1xram on Wed, 02/22/2012 - 4:02am.
TARP allowed all the banks to maintain failed mortgages at the value before they failed. The next plan is to loan more money to people without sufficient collateral in their house to get more money. All the student loans are now rolled into the unlimited corruption firms of Fannie and Freddie. The Federal Reserve is printing money and purchasing our own debt, think Weimar Republic. They do so through a third party because IT IS ILLEGAL! We are talking about many trillions of dollars wrapped up in false books.
What could go wrong?
The opposite of Left is Freedom.