Open Thread

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For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: the economy isn't nearly as bad as we're being told.

The Commerce Department reported that the nation's economic output was the weakest since the third quarter of 2001, but it wasn't as bad a showing as Wall Street had feared. The department said the gross domestic product, the measure of all goods and services produced within the U.S. fell at a 0.3 percent annual rate in the July-September quarter, rather than 0.5 percent as expected.

To put this in perspective, the 1953-54 recession began with a 2.4% GNP decline in the 4th quarter. The 57-58 recession began with a 4.2% decline in Q4. The 69-70 recession began with a 1.9% decline in Q4. The 73-74 recession began with a 2.1% decline in Q3. The 1980 recession began with a 7.8% decline in Q3. The 81-82 recession began with a 4.9% decline in Q4. The 90-91 recession began with a 3% decline in Q4. The 2001 recession began with a 0.5% decline in Q1. With this in mind, the current recession is beginning with the smallest opening-quarter decline of any recession since 1950 (questions follow below the fold).

Might the hysteria of the past six weeks be a bit overdone, and things really don't look as bad as Wall Street, the media, and Obama-Biden are claiming? Given all the stimulus and liquidity injected into the system around the globe, is it possible a serious recession can be prevented, and things are nowhere near as gloomy as they feel? Or, is this the calm before the real storm hits in coming quarters?