Open Thread


For general discussion and debate. Possible talking point: the economy and the markets.

It's been an absolutely horrible start to the new year for stocks. I heard yesterday that if the market doesn't rally in the next two weeks, this will be the worst January since 1950.

YIKES!

Of more immediate concern is the following chart:

Story Continues Below Ad ↓

If you draw a line through the lows going back to March 2003, this is the roughly five-year bull trend line. This week, as you can see at the far right of the chart, we blew through it, and cascaded down.

Lots of people talk about a bear market being a 20 percent or more decline. I've always felt that when you break the bull trend line, you're in a bear market regardless of the percentage drop from the top. As such, unless you want to mince words, the bull market that began in March 2003 ended this week.

Moving forward, the joke on Wall Street for many years has been that the market has correctly predicted eleven out of the last three recessions, meaning that bear markets are rarely an accurate foreshadowing of economic activity. The best example is 1987 when a crash of epic proportions occurred with no subsequent economic collapse.

With that in mind, and with Washington talking about a stimulus package, are we in a recession, or going into one? Is fiscal stimulus needed at this point, or just political expedience? Would Washington be talking about such things if it wasn't an election year?

Furthermore, is Fed Chairman Bernanke to blame for the current slowdown? Should he have cut interest rates more aggressively and sooner? Or, is he between a rock and a hard place?

After all, the monetary easing we've already seen has caused further dollar weakness along with commodities rising causing inflation (first chart is the CRB Commodities Index, second is the U.S. Dollar Index):

As the Fed's real charter is to keep inflation in check, is Bernanke in a bind inasmuch as the economy might need lower rates to grow, but every downtick in such fuels the commodities bull market and the dollar bear market?

Making this simpler, has Bernanke been slow on the trigger because the Fed knows that lower rates are just going to continue to push inflation higher, and they're more concerned with the Consumer Price Index than the consumer? 

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pollaganda

a recommended read on the use of polls to propagandise

GoHunter08

Great read, botg. I think

Great read, botg. I think we've all suspected most of that all along. My favorite part is this: (emphasis mine)

...most polls reflect intentional propagation of a particular bias by Leftmedia
television and print outlets to manipulate public opinion. They accomplish this
by first indoctrinating viewers with “reporting” that reflects a
particular bias
, then conducting “opinion polls” which, of course, reflect that indoctrination.

Then the media uses poll results to proselytize further by treating the
results as “news,”
which, in turn, induces “bandwagon” psychology—the human
tendency of those who do not have a strong ideological foundation to aspire to
the side perceived to be in the majority—and thus further drives public opinion toward the original media bias, ad infinitum.

 

 

Perhaps if we have a few

Perhaps if we have a few "New Hampshire-like" results from major polls, people will really start to look at the biases and truly start thinking for themselves.

Read "Aborting America"

Bernard Nathanson described in "Aborting America" how, when he was part of the National Association for the Repeal of Abortion Laws (NARAL, now National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League), they used the polls manipulation technique, among others, to sell the public on "safe and legal" abortion. It's an excellent in-depth study on how it's done, from an insider who participated. 

thanks Granny

it will be on my list (which is no guareentee of anything these days) 

Supreme Court,  National Security,  Borders,  Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.

So for months I've been

So for months I've been seeing articles on here where NB writers poo-pooed the media's claims that we were headed for an economic downturn. Was that poo-pooing off-target?

I would have to suggest that

I would have to suggest that the media has been putting this throught into the heads of the general consumer now for about a year. The data at this point does not say we are in a recession, nor does it say we have had even a single quarter downturn in the economy, which could be but does not necessarily mean that we have entered a recession. The hysteria of the media began with eh "housing crisis" which was, in effect, a downturn in a single market. With the "subprime crisis," the next media scare, we supposedly had a whopping 3% forclosure rate on homes, when in fact, the foreclosure rate was perhaps lower than 0.3%, about what you might expect in a standard market. We have now been in the throws of this crisis forover half a year and we now have a significant dip in the US stock markets. I have not looked at other world markets to do an analysis of how their markets are faring, but I suspect that they are doing better than ours. The point is, if you hear bad news enough, even if it there is not currently bad news, it is likely to happen at some point. That is simply the human factor at work. My business boomed in 2007 and I am on track to have an even better 2008. My outlook is positive and I will continue to look at it that way and promote economic strengths to my customers. That is something they do not hear from the media.

Hermano, "for a year"?

Hermano, "for a year"? Certainly they've increased their bad-mouthing of the economy over the past year, but they've been dissing the economy for over five years now.

We have not yet entered a downturn in the economy. The rate of growth of the economy has slowed, but the growth has continued positive. A recession is two quarters of negative growth, or contraction in real GDP. That hasn't happened. The constant drumbeat of recession from the LibMedia can, and probably will, create a self-fulfilling prophecy on the event. You remember the caveats included in their economic reporting: "unemployment rate has reached an all time low...can it continue?"; "x-hundred thousand new jobs were created in the last quarter ... is recession on the horizon?"; "manufacturing orders have increased over the last quarter ... is recession right around the corner?" And on, and on, and on. As often as "recession" has been repeated, it's no wonder that economically ignorant Joe Blow, who depends on these yahoos for news is under the impression that a recession is imminent. So, Joe Blow decides he'd best save up some money for the "hard times ahead", and doesn't buy that new refrigerator he'd planned on. Or the new car, or the trip to Disneyland with the family, etc. And, soon enough, there is an economic retraction, not because the economy was intrinsically unsound, but because of intrinsically false reporting and propagandizing by the media.

"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan

Mike, I thought I implied

Mike,

I thought I implied that the economy had not slowed down. While you are quite right about the increase in the bad-mouthing of the economy by the media, I think the average (and not so average) American was having none of it. However, as their intensity has increased, it will be increasingly likely that this will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. I may be mistaken, but the last unemployment numbers I saw was an increase from the low of 4.7% - just another excuse for the media to harp on a recession. They are also using the change in the CPI to be another harbinger of impending economic doom. Personally, I wish they would just shut their f'n traps and just tell us what the numbers are. I don't need their "analysis" to tell me how the economy is going.

Balboa

Balboa,

So for months I've been seeing articles on here where NB writers poo-pooed the media's claims that we were headed for an economic downturn. Was that poo-pooing off-target?

EXCUSE ME? No, what we've been writing at NB and BMI FOR YEARS is that the media have been reporting FOR YEARS that the economy is not doing well! The media have been downplaying this recovery since it started in the 4th quarter of 2001. They've been wrong for more than six years.

As such, if the economy actually finally does go into a recession, are you suggesting they're right when they've been wrong all along?

If I told you in March 2003 that you should short the market because a recession is looming, would I be right now that one is about to occur?

GIVE ME A BREAK!!! ns

A couple of good reads from

A couple of good reads from David Horowitz's FrontPageMagazine website:

The Saudis' Green Fifth Column

is Michael Reagan's view of how the environmentalist talk energy-independence but stand in the way of efforts to achieve it.

and

The First Affirmative Action Candidate

explores the media's reluctanct to cast a critical eye upon Barack Obama.

MB

I'd say Michael hit the mark, an excellent article

ANWR 

South Carolina Voters insane to vote for McCain

"I believe my party has gone astray. I think the Democratic Party is a fine party, and I have no problems with it, in their views and their philosophy." - John McCain

Age: 71

Betrayal, deceit, corruption and John McCain (The U.S. Veteran Dispatch)

"While still married to Carol, McCain began an adulterous relationship with Cindy. He married Cindy in May 1980 - just a month after dumping his crippled wife and securing a divorce."

Abortion:

John McCain Supports Embryonic Stem Cell Research (Audio)
McCain Softens Abortion Stand (The Washington Post)

"But certainly in the short term, or even the long term, I would not support repeal of Roe v. Wade, which would then force X number of women in America to [undergo] illegal and dangerous operations." - John McCain

Foreign Policy:

McCain falls asleep during the State of the Union Address (Video)
McCain to Close Gitmo: "The first day I am President" (Video)

Global Warming:

McCain and Lieberman Push for New Anti-Global Warming Legislation (The National Center for Public Policy Research)
Senators McCain and Lieberman Propose Energy Tax (The National Center for Public Policy Research)

"No drilling in ANWR, nor in the Everglades, nor off the coast of Florida... To think that drilling in ANWR is the solution to our incredible energy needs is frankly, is not keeping in the reality of what's there, and what it would take to get it out" - John McCain

Illegal Immigration:

John McCain gets a 'D' on his Immigration Voting Report Card (Americans for Better Immigration)

- McCain favors business lobbyists’ desires for foreign workers vs. protecting American workers’ wages and jobs
- McCain’s hopes of giving millions amnesty will saddle American taxpayers with huge costs of $20,000 per illegal per year
- McCain has taken the pro-amnesty position in nearly two dozen votes
- McCain only promises to make 2 million of the 12-20 million illegal aliens go home

John McCain Praises Pro-illegal Protests (NewsMax)
McCain called plan 'amnesty' in 2003 (WorldNetDaily)

"I think we can set up a program where amnesty is extended to a certain number of people, Amnesty has to be an important part..." - John McCain, 2003

Michigan Crowd Boos McCain On Illegal Immigration (Video) (1min)
McCain Voted For Illegal Immigrants To Collect Social Security (UC Daily News)

Taxes:

McCain Boasts That He Voted Against The Bush Tax Cuts (Video)
McCain Would Vote Against Tax Cuts Again (The Club for Growth)

- McCain sponsored and voted for an enormous 282% tax increase on cigarettes in 1998
- McCain was one of only two Republican to vote against the $1.35 trillion tax cut in 2001
- McCain was one of only two Republicans to twice vote against permanent repeal of the death tax in 2002
- McCain was one of only three Republican to twice vote against the $350 billion tax cut in 2003

McCain’s Costly Tax on Energy (National Review Online)

- The EPA Estimates Sen. McCain's Plan Would Hike Gas Taxes By 68 Cents Per Gallon
- The EPA Estimates Sen. McCain's Plan Would Reduce United States GDP By As Much As $5.2 Trillion

McCain Rejects Anti-Tax Pledge (CNSNews)

Veterans:

McCain Can't Buy His Way Out of Votes Against Funding for Veterans

- McCain Voted Against $19 Billion for Military Hospitals
- McCain Voted Against Amendment to Provide $2.8 Billion For Veterans' Medical Care
- McCain Voted Against 2005 Amendment to Provide Guaranteed Funding Stream for Veterans' Health Care
- McCain Voted Against Establishing $1 Billion Trust Fund to Provide Improvements to Military and Veterans' Health Facilities
- McCain Voted Against Adding $1.5 billion to Veterans' Medical Services in FY 2007 by Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes
- McCain Voted Against Mandatory Funding of $6.9 Billion in FY 2007 and $104 Billion Over Five Years for Veterans' Health Care

The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

Godspeed, John McCain, Godspeed!

PopT,

Who are you supporting?

S

Anyone but McCain or Huckabee

Apparently the people of South Carolina are ignorant and uninformed.

Huckabee: Raising Taxes OK
The Anti "Man-Made" Global Warming Resource

This entire election process...

...will be a unique study in being ignorant and uniformed. Who are you going to pick to attack now? I'm waiting for the next huge postings of attacks you seem to relish. Amusing to a certain degree. Keep us informed...

Syrius

Syrius

i think you are correct about this election process.  Be nice if the media started asking the right questions to expose the positions of the candidates rather than the 'cult of personality' they wish to portray about the candidates.

Supreme Court,  National Security,  Borders,  Fiscal Restraint, my litmus test for President.

Off on a bit of a tangent,

Off on a bit of a tangent, but still economy related: Democrat Marcy Kaptur was ready to get to the bottom of the sub-prime mortgage "crisis" at a hearing...she thought she was grilling Treasury Secretary Ron Paulson, but it was Federal Reserve Chariman Ben Bernanke.... oops!

Michelle Malkin has the video (which she calls "snort-worthy" LOL)

Kaptur thanks Bernanke for "clearing that up for the record."

I think there's going to be hell to pay for the Kaptur staffer who did the advance research...ROFL.

I take issue with the below statement

"As the Fed's real charter is to keep inflation in check,..."

That is NOT in the charter of the Federal reserve. Here is the purported reason for establishing the "FED":

"
To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an
elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to
establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States,
and for other purposes."

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) was established to support and defend the value of the US dollaragainst foreign currencies. It was only later that the FOMC discovered that by manipulating interest rates, they could affect the economy.

Since the Federal Reserve Note was declaired as the only legal US tender, the method of the US issueing it's own currency drives inflation without any external influence at all. The US governemtn sells special bonds to the "FED", the "FED" then issues the face amount of the bonds in Federal Reserve Notes (which the US printing office prints for them). There is not enough notes issued to cover the interest on the bonds, so when the bonds come due...the cycle has to repeat but for more value than was originally issued. That means that without taking into account any prices or the economic conditions, there will be more dollars in circulation therefore they will be worth less. Voila! We have "inflation".

For the time period between 1800 and 1912, the "inflation rate" as measured by the CPI averaged 0.2%. That's right. It was bassically flat and unchanging (even with the Civil War years factored in). However, the average income to US families increased 5000% in that same timespan. So every generation people were doing much better and prices were about the same. Then came the Federal ReserveAct... From 1913 to the present,"inflation" has averaged 5.5%. Most of that has happened from 1970 - present. The average US family income has increased 8000% in that same timespan but prices have increased 5000% so the net difference is that the average US family today is only 3X what they were in 1912.

The Federal Reserve is an inflation machine.

(The above figures are ball-park estimates for discussion purposes. I didn't actually run the calculations so i could be off by a bit, but the orders of magnitude are roughly correct).

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Alan Keyes '08.

c5, I'm not disputing

c5, I'm not disputing you...just want to know who made the statement that you disagree with?

Don't know.

That would be whichever NB staffer wrote it in the above post.

I just wanted to get the facts out in the open, the FED is not supposed to be incharge of the US economy. They are just supposed to be protectors of the currency value and the national organization to which "National Banks" belong to protect them from failing.

The day that "politician" became a career choice is the day we started losing the Republic. Let's get it back! Alan Keyes '08.

Ah, OK. I guess I missed

Ah, OK. I guess I missed that. Was just wondering what you were referring to.

 

C5

C5,

Well, there's a lot of question as to what the charter is. As you stated:

To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, toestablish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States,and for other purposes."

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) was established to support and defend the value of the US dollaragainst [sic] foreign currencies.

With that in mind, what is inflation? Isn't it to a large extent the value of our currency versus others?

As such, if the Fed is responsible for defending the value of our currency, they are INDEED responsible for keeping inflation in check, for inflation is de facto a decline in the value of the dollar. Make sense? ns

Meanwhile, in Nevada,

WJC hits bottom and --- digs.

I'm coming around to the idea that there is something organically wrong with the man.

For those that missed it earlier this week

http://abcnews.go.co...

 

See if your answers match your choice

FowlerK9

GOHUNTER08

There's something fishy about that questionnaire

It told me that my candidate was Gomer Pyle. I know for a fact that with the way that I answered the questions that Gomer and I aren't even in the same ball park. The formula that they use is set on what ABC believes the candidates stand for, not their true platform issues.

Stultus est sicut stultus facit

Fowler, this ABC matchup

Fowler, this ABC matchup poll is very poorly constructed, and doesn't cover the issues by half. It said my first choice is Rudy Guliani, which is crap. I wouldn't vote for the pro-abortion, anti-gun, sanctuary city ***wipe for any reason. On every other issue/candidate matching poll, my first two matches have consistenly been Hunter and Thompson, with each of them getting first place the same number of times. Guliani has always been way low on the list. This ABC poll has to have an extreme left bias built into it for it to have chosen Guliani as my first pick.

"A communist is someone who reads Marx. An anti-communist is someone who understands Marx." Ronald Reagan

Holy crap, just read

Holy crap, just read Question #1 in the Healthcare section!!!

"What is the best way the federal government can get more people covered by health insurance?"

This questionnaire is blatantly one-sided!  Good catch Fowler.

-PJ 

Support a policy of fair play in debate. Tell TruthMonger he owes me a steak!

My results: 1. Mitt 2. Ron

My results:

1. Mitt
2. Ron Paul!!! LMAO!!!11 Rly, that's what came up!
3. Duncan Hunter.

-PJ

Support a policy of fair play in debate. Tell TruthMonger he owes me a steak!

You know, it might be

You know, it might be legit...i answered the questions with the complete opposite of what I really thought and ended up with Edwards, Gravel (I think...I didn't recognize the guy LOL) and Dodd!

 

trach

i liked the question about the best way to combat global bulljive

GoHunter08

Same here.  But I kind of

Same here.  But I kind of took that one as a given, seeing as how most of the GOP candidates seemed to give AGW some validation.

-PJ

Support a policy of fair play in debate. Tell TruthMonger he owes me a steak!

Revisiting Bill and Monica's affair

I find it hard to believe no one has had anything to say about Hillary being interviewed again on the cusp of these Primaries about the Monica and Bill Show ten years later. The immediate thought I had is she is going after those sympathy votes again. It worked when she ran for the Senate. She got all those female votes who felt her pain at having a husband who has cheated on her repeatedly. She can't pull out the tears again as it is too soon on the heels of her last emotional display. This will play nicely for the "he done her wrong" votes.

Fox already touting Mitt takes Nev

Fox News projecting Romney wins Nevada!

Reno 911 calls it for Ron Paul. Whatever happened to him, and his NB cheerleader Sarcasmo, by the way?

Check out my exclusive edit of BBC News America's interview with Mrs Clinton: It's news to me!

SARC

Is on the blimp I believe. There's no wireless internet there.

Stultus est sicut stultus facit

Funny Oldsalt! They're

Funny Oldsalt!

They're gonna have to bail a few people out that blimp soon, as it appears to be running out of hot air.

Check out my exclusive edit of BBC News America's interview with Mrs Clinton: It's news to me!

jack

a political campaign out of hot air?

GoHunter08

botg -- I know. Hard to

botg -- I know. Hard to believe.

But Ron and the Paulestinians are now running on thin air.

I expect the Jim Jones type suicides to start very soon, Paulstown.

Check out my exclusive edit of BBC News America's interview with Mrs Clinton: It's news to me!

It wasn't hot air

It's methane. From all of the Paulbots talking out their a$$.

Stultus est sicut stultus facit

and the roaming

charges are through the roof

GoHunter08

I just read this on Drudge

Does anyone think that if ANY of the GOP candidates would have said something LIKE THIS that they wouldn't have been crucified in the press? It's really unbelieveable what Slick Willy and his cadre can get away with.

Stultus est sicut stultus facit

It's absolutely amazing

It's absolutely amazing that, whatever the story, whatever the issue, our Mr. Bill has always just had a personal encounter that illustrates it. It's just amazing; these things never happen to anyone else. He's probably ticked off because his wife won but Obama got more delegates (however that works).

Obama apparently said if they have evidence (and that would be first-hand evidence from a former President would it not?) they should file charges. Somehow I can't see that happening...they don't really want anyone looking too closely and discovering the truth (that Bill made it up like he does all his other "personal encounter" stories)...they just want the accusation floating around out there.

Here's the Obama campaign's response to the Clinton shenanigans.

motherbelt

that and how Hil N Bill remember verbatum disscussions from 30 years ago but when asked in 99 about events from 97 "I don't recall"

GoHunter08

From Camp Obama:

"It is a sad day when Democrats start trying to suppress the vote of other Democrats."

I take that to mean that they think suppressing votes of Republicans wouldn't be so bad?

I take that to mean that


I take that to mean that they think suppressing votes of Republicans wouldn't be so bad?

Well, yeah!

They don't necessarily think it's OK, they just didn't expect the Clintons to use their tricks against their own party. They don't realize that right now other Democrats are the enemy.

"Strike first. Strike hard. No mercy!" -Unethical Sensei in "The Karate Kid." (1984)

"You have to deck your opponent." -Hillary Rodham Clinton (2007)

 

you want the truth?

There's no way I'm slogging

There's no way I'm slogging through that. I'll wait for the Readers' Digest Condensed Version.

BTW I noticed the heading...."A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment etc. etc.

That's exactly the same formulation that my daughter had to use on the title page  every paper that she turned in during her high school career (she graduated in 2007).

Some things never change.

Heh.

Hillary's thesis

may be more pertainent to her current ideology

GoHunter08

AAWWWW, botg......are you

AAWWWW, botg......are you sayin' I gotta read it?????

far be it from me

to force a 'motherbelt' to do anything (i rather twist Chuck Norris' arm).

there may be some great debate questions in there however

GoHunter08

The Charts are Missing from the Article

-

*** Hey guys, can you fix the 2nd and 3rd charts in this story, they seem to have gone dead, or maybe link to them?

-

Why is SC hyped as know all vote, when Nv has more delegates!

Why is SC hyped as know all vote, when Nv has more delegates!  Could it be because the media darling is not going to win in NV.  Also, why hasn't the MSM talked about who won in Wy?  Could it be they again didn't get what they wanted!  The MSM is trying to sway our minds on everything from inflation, global warming, election, who runs, etc.  We must obey, we must obey, we must obey!!

Mrs. Clinton beat Barry

Mrs. Clinton beat Barry Obama in Nevada. Guess those culinary workers don't march in lock step with the union bosses.

Romney, of course won on our side with 51% of the vote. In second place is Ron Paul with a whoppin' 13%. All I can say is 13% of Nevadans scare me.

Gary... I agree with

Gary...

I agree with you...plus just think what it means to McCain...  the independents that didn't go for him this time...they had McCain and Paul going back and forth for first for awhile...

Great fun for me anyway....

The joys of government healthcare

With government healthcare being debated, especially by the Dems, here's a cautionary tale from Great Britain.  A kidney patient there received a transplant, then had to have it removed hours later when someone discovered that the donated kidney was the wrong blood type.  The patient was O-positive.  The kidney came from an A-positive donor.  The National Health Service computer had the wrong blood type, even though the correct blood type was clearly listed on hospital records.

This is a double tragedy.  One patient has his (or her) hopes raised only to have them dashed, not to mention two surgeries in less than a day.  And a healthy donated kidney was wasted instead of benefitting a patient with the right blood type.  If the donor was a live donor, then that person is running around for the rest of his/her life with one kidney based on an error.

This could be our healthcare system in a few years if we're not careful. 

When you put the clowns in charge, don't be surprised when a circus breaks out.

Meanwhile In A Blue State

One of the Bluest of states in the union-Hawaii-continues to pay the price for its liberal court system. The state has the worst Ice epidemic on the planet.

In this past week alone, in my former home town of Kailua (the one on Oahu, not the one on the Big Island) a young mother of 5 was brutally murdered by her ex boyfriend in the middle of an intersection in a usually quiet residential neighborhood. When a Good Samaritan neighbor (69 years old, as I recall) tried to come to her aid, he was also brutally beaten. The accused murdered the woman by repeatedly hitting her over the head with a shotgun, which apparently hit her with such force it splintered.

What's even scarier about this case is that it didn't happen in an exactly seedy neighborhood, In fact, last week a house several blocks away from the murder scene sold for $22 million dollars.

http://www.kitv.com/...

This was followed by a guy dropping a toddler off a highway overpass to his death.

More sad details:

http://www.hawaiirep...

One the MSM will never cover

Evidently the records Planned Parenthood turned over to disgraced AG Paul Morrison -- who dropped the investigation into illegal third-trimester abortions, saying that there wasn't any evidence -- were not the same as the records that had been turned over to his predecessor, Phil Kline. They'd been doctored:

 http://www.operationrescue.org/?p=838