Media Can't Decide If 2.4 Percent Is Dramatic or Ho-Hum

By Nathan Burchfiel (Bio | Archive)
December 26, 2007 - 15:59 ET

The media are always trying to find a way to report the bad side of economic news, so it's shouldn't come as a terrible surprise to anyone that they managed to make positive holiday sales growth a bad thing.

According to MasterCard SpendingPulse, retail sales were up 3.6 percent during the holiday season - 2.4 percent excluding gas prices. But because it's not as big an increase as recent years have produced, the media reported it as bad news.

On NBC's "Nightly News," reporter Savannah Guthrie announced a "dramatic" 2.4 percent decrease in women's clothing sales. She didn't think the same percentage increase was "dramatic," however. Instead, she referred to the overall sales increase as "disappointing."

Other media labeled the figures "dismal," "small," "weak," "bleak" and "a clear sign that the economy is slowing down." Most made sure to point out, like "Good Morning America's" Ryan Owens, that the increase is "the smallest in four years."

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But they largely downplayed more positive news, such as the 22.4 percent increase in online sales and the 7.1 percent increase in luxury goods. They did note, however, that sales during the week after Christmas could bump the numbers up to the predicted 4 percent increase over 2006.

The Wall Street Journal reported that "last year, January sales made up 25 percent of the three-month period's total, up from 23.6 percent in the 2000-01 season, according to ShopperTrak."

"The Early Show" featured an interview with Scott Krugman of the National Retail Federation (NRF), who predicted post-Christmas sales "will be enough to save Christmas for retailers." He said the NRF believes its prediction of a 4 percent increase over 2006 sales will be met when the dust settles.

Only Investor's Business Daily really put the story in perspective, quoting PriceGrabber.com CEO Ron LaPierre, who pointed out that "even with a slowing growth rate, the dollar amounts are rising in the billions" and "the fact that e-commerce can generate $4 billion more in sales than it did this time last year is very promising."


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No surprise there....

December 26, 2007 - 16:04 ET by motherbelt

But because it's not as big an increase as recent years have produced, the media reported it as bad news.

No surprise there. They report a 6% increase in spending, instead of the proposed 10%, as a "cut."

This argument...

December 26, 2007 - 16:03 ET by Clear thinker

Less than 15 minutes ago, my wife and I were having the same conversation about how one media outlet says Christmas sales were sluggish and telling of a major finacial meltdown, while another media outlet reprts sales were up pver last year.

I would prescribe Lithium to our favorite liberal MSM outlet. 

Rush Limbaugh stated that of the top 5 Republicans running for the presidency, only one was a true conservative. http://www.fred08.com/ 

wow..

December 26, 2007 - 16:23 ET by pwoz

Considering a typically 8 minute drive from the mall to my home took me about 70 minutes on December 22nd, I'd say the economy is doing fine...

Gee when job growth

December 26, 2007 - 16:29 ET by Right2thePoint

Gee when job growth continues but slows because you are bouncing along at near full employment there is little to add to discretionary income to maintain the growth of Christmas spending to sustain the GDP growth / spending growth curve and they act shocked and surprised.

Most analysis has been trying to figure out why the gap was able to proceed as long as it did.

A lot pointed to retirement of credit card debt and rolling it to refinace of house equity which did have an impact. If the spending habit still exists for the same ones who had to do that to start with, with the tighter refinance market they will bump up against reality as it all goes along.

Also saw an article today about big box stores dialing back on new store expansion in some areas. Again the story never addressed exactly why they thought the business/economic cycle should be ignored and new store additions should just carry on with blinders to narrow the way.

NewsReaders

December 26, 2007 - 16:31 ET by Jerry Mack

I do not beleve that the news readers or the talking heads have a clue about the economy. My perception is that management passes along the Democrats talking points on the economy to the producers. The producers understand them to be orders and do as they are told.

Increased gasoline

December 26, 2007 - 17:06 ET by robert108

Increased gasoline consumption is due to holiday driving, and is a part of the economic activity in question. The only reason to exclude gasoline is purely for propaganda purposes, unless you also subtract it for all the years in the past, to get an accurate comparison.

In fact, the increase in holiday revenue is even more remarkable, due to the claimed dampening effect of "high gas prices". More MSM dishonesty.

I think these stories were

December 26, 2007 - 19:49 ET by Chris Norman

I think these stories were written well before the Christams shopping season - only the numbers needed to be added - even if they have to use a sledge hammer to get the stats to fit.

Watching media stories on

December 26, 2007 - 19:45 ET by middlecon

Watching media stories on the economy is like watching the Debbie Downer skits on SNL...they always manage to throw a black cloud on whatever silver lining might peak through.

 

 

This story, in and of

December 27, 2007 - 09:18 ET by jdhawk

This story, in and of itself, is not particularly biased, but when you add up the plethora of stories about our economy during President Bush's term of office, it is galling that they persist in denigrating the "greatest story never told."  After a roiling sub prime mortgage market and the ensuing mark to market CDO crisis, it is a wonder that our consuming public is confident enough to open their wallets as they are doing.

Also, the day after Christmas is no longer the bench mark it once was for determining how the season faired.  With the advent of gift cards and terrific sales after Christmas, the season really extends into mid January.

The other thing that must be said is that many goods are actually cheaper than they were last year (the consumer's dollar is going further).  Many examples can be provided particularly in electronics.  However, as my wife detailed to me, womens clothing is much cheaper than it has been in the past and is being discounted further by the big retailers such as Macy's, Belk, etc. I was pleasantly surprised by this!

Global warming behind women's clothing sales drop..

December 27, 2007 - 13:30 ET by Gary Hall

Well, this should be easy to understand:

..announced a "dramatic" 2.4 percent decrease in women's clothing sales.

With most of the US being buffeted by one blustery winter storm after another these past couple of months, who would be surprised that women’s clothing sales are down.On the other hand, I suspect that winter parka, boots, gloves and scarf sales are on the up.

Obviously, this shift in buying habits is being caused by global cooling, which as the MSM well understands, is caused by global warming. I'm rather surprised that NBC missed the bait.