USA Today: 'Weekly Jobless Claims at Lowest Level in Over 3 Years'
There's good economic news today, at least for those who only scan headlines. On USA Today's Web site, the headline is "Weekly jobless claims at lowest level in over 3 years." Oh, happy day! The president's stimulus is finally working. But if you read the Associated Press story under the headline, the news isn't quite so sanguine:
The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week after three straight weeks of declines to a level consistent with a modest pick-up in hiring.
That broader trend of jobless claims over the past month boltsters (sic) the view that job growth could pick up in 2012.
Weekly applications increased by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000 the week ended Dec. 24, the Labor Department said Thursday.
The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped for the fourth straight week to 375,000. That's the lowest level since June 2008, before the financial and housing markets meltdown that precipitated a recession.
So contrary to what's suggested by the headline, last week's jobless claims weren't at the lowest level in over three years. The four-week average, "a less volatile measure," is. Last week, more people filed claims than the week before.
In fact, the Department of Labor reported that for the week ending December 24, the non-seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims shot up by more than 69,000.
But why let that interfere with a great headline?
- Mike Bates's blog
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Comments
Not only that
Submitted by bkeyser on Thu, 12/29/2011 - 3:17pm.
but last weeks seasonally-adjusted average was revised upward by 2000, and this week's numbers include BLS guesses for seven states as their data wasn't in yet due to the holidays.
Two things: First, the USNews shouldn't be embellishing the report in the headline, but there's no big surprise there. And secondly, this time of year is not the time to be making trending claims regarding unemployment. Not because of the hiring and firing that goes on around the holidays since these reports are seasonally adjusted, but because of the days off, it's difficult to get any kind of accurate count. They need to see where things are by January's end.
They did mention Europe as a possible drag going forward, but didn't mention China's housing bubble showing signs of popping, or the more local issue of Sears closing more than 100 Sears and K-Mart outlets here at home. But it's Thursday, and maybe they're just trying to brighten everyone's weekend...
Even if it were true, what
Submitted by motherbelt on Thu, 12/29/2011 - 3:17pm.
Even if it were true, what difference does one week make in the grand scheme of things?
Posting numbers on a week-to-week basis does nothing but provide a roller coaster view of things.
But then, again, with a 24-hr. news cycle, there are hours and pages to fill; thus every hiccup and burp has to be reported and pontificated on. After all, they have to do something to earn their pay.
And let's not forget that every headline that makes it sound like our recreationist president is actually accomplishing something is worthwhile!
I trust unemployment numbers as much as I trust housing numbers
Submitted by Dave. on Thu, 12/29/2011 - 8:18pm.
Not even a little bit.
Too many in the MSM are only trying to get the Dear Ruler reelected.
-Dave
Vote for the American in November
Here we go again with the one to two point trend garbage.
Submitted by drsamherman on Thu, 12/29/2011 - 9:21pm.
What will happen to those numbers when all of those Christmas season temp jobs in retail and shipping go away? Kiss this fake trend goodbye and welcome back the media sputtering for excuses. This is as predictable as Old Faithful in Yellowstone.
How about the Clains The State no long carry on the rolls.
Submitted by Avitar on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 1:46am.
When they stop paying you they stop counting you,
What they also leave off. . . .
Submitted by DontFeedTheTrolls on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 7:10am.
Is the fact that many companies have already cut personnel to the bone, months ago, and can cut no further.
Around the middle of 2013 I
Submitted by Dan The Man 2 on Fri, 12/30/2011 - 1:25pm.
Around the middle of 2013 I am sure the figures will get really gloomy and the new President will be blamed.