In their quest to supply as many reasons as possible to vote for Barack Obama, the mainstream media have expressed a particular interest in John McCain's mortality. Last May, McCain made available more than 1,000 pages of medical records for press scrutiny. In contrast, Obama released a one-page letter from a physician pronouncing the Democrat in excellent health.
Now comes the Associated Press today with an article titled, "One-in-four chance McCain may not survive 2nd term." It starts:
If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president — Sarah Palin.
It's actuarial math.
The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.
An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.
McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.
"Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James C. Brooks, Jr., an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."
If readers makes it to the nineteenth paragraph, they'll learn that there may be cause for concern in terms of Obama's health:
But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer. Obama's PSA screening test for prostate cancer showed no sign of abnormalities.
It seems to me that a piece focusing on the likelihood of McCain completing a second term in good health would be more appropriately timed for closer to the end of his first term in the White House.
Additionally, the headline could have, as KAIT8 in Jonesboro, Arkansas did, more fairly titled an article with much of the same information "Odds favor McCain completing a first term in good health."
But then, that wouldn't have the desired effect, would it?




















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Comments Policy
Isn't the Sainted One a
September 30, 2008 - 17:34 ET by Dagny TaggartIsn't the Sainted One a chain smoker? Last I heard, that was supposed to be pretty much a guarantee of lung cancer - or does that only apply when attempting to scare the pants off of people? I'm not being cavalier here, but seriously, I'd be as concerned about that as I was about McCain's age.
Smokin'
September 30, 2008 - 17:38 ET by Mike BatesIsn't the Sainted One a chain smoker?
He's reportedly stopped, with the aid of nicotine gum. And Ma Belle, who'd probably wrap a skillet around his head if she caught him.
100% Guarantee Not to Make it for 4 years
September 30, 2008 - 20:11 ET by Gat New YorkObama had been a heavy chain smoker up until recently and we don't know for sure if he has stopped.
I would certainly like to see a chest x-ray and blood tests because his lungs may already have signs of cancer. It is worth noting that his mother did die from cancer at the age of only 53. McCain's mother is still alive. So why is the media not clammering for Obama's medical records and demanding a lung x-ray.
Gat... That will be the
September 30, 2008 - 20:14 ET by Clear thinkerGat...
That will be the least of Obama's problems. Local Democrats where I live joke about how he will be assasinated in his first year.
Palin Is Caught And Her Career Is Over!
Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/
Obama is the real problem
September 30, 2008 - 17:35 ET by wdhorningThere is 10:1 chance Obama would be run out of office in the first year for being the total failure he already is.
Run out of office
September 30, 2008 - 17:39 ET by Mike BatesMaybe he could get another gig with ACORN.
There's even worse odds of
September 30, 2008 - 17:44 ET by Chris NormanThe odds are even greater that we won't survive a first term of Obama.
McNotObama '08
Survivor
September 30, 2008 - 17:44 ET by Mike BatesThere's even worse odds of us surviving a first term of Obama.
Don't know that the AP is worried about that, Chris.
Yes, of course, you're
September 30, 2008 - 18:00 ET by Chris NormanYes, of course, you're right. AP sees him as a savior - perhaps The Savior.
BTW, it always makes me wonder that why, every four to eight years, we, as a nation decide to replace one governing political philosophy with another that's diametrically opposed to the existing one. It was one thing when the political parties' philosophies and programs were closer together, but now, when the liberals screw everything up, we bring in conservatives to fix it - and then later, the majority decides that conservatism is mean or incompetent or something and liberalism - even extreme liberalism is okay after all. We really are becoming a politically schizophrenic nation, aren't we?
McNotObama '08
schizophrenic nation
September 30, 2008 - 18:06 ET by Mike BatesWe really are becoming a schizophrenic nation, aren't we?
Seems to me we've become a nation divided between those who are paying attention and those who aren't. I know that can seem somewhat conceited, but the longer I'm around, the more noticeable it is that folks lacking facts, reasoning and logic are the biggest libs.
Or maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
Oh, but you do. That might
September 30, 2008 - 18:19 ET by Chris NormanOh, but you do. That might play into my contention that we are becoming a nation divided between those who believe and rely on the news from the MSM and those of us who don't.
Otherwise, we may have become a nation of amnesiacs...
McNotObama '08
a nation of amnesiacs
September 30, 2008 - 18:24 ET by Mike BatesOtherwise, we may have become a nation of amnesiacs...
That shouldn't be a problem as long as there's PBS, Charlie Rose, etc.
I think you're thinking of
September 30, 2008 - 18:31 ET by Chris NormanI think you're thinking of a nation of insomniacs.
McNotObama '08
Busted!
September 30, 2008 - 18:51 ET by Mike BatesI think you're thinking of a nation of insomniacs.
MMB... It may be worse
September 30, 2008 - 18:40 ET by Clear thinkerMMB...
It may be worse than you know. Palin Is Caught And Her Career Is Over!
Making Fun of AGW http://giovanniworld.wordpress.com/
Palin nailed, Clear
September 30, 2008 - 18:54 ET by Mike BatesIf the HuffPo says it, it must be so.
Governor Palin has only
September 30, 2008 - 20:46 ET by Free StinkerGovernor Palin has only been on the ticket for 32 days and the Palin Derangement Syndrome is out of control !
I think it coincides with
September 30, 2008 - 20:52 ET by balboaI think it coincides with the Palin Love Affair Syndrome.
I'm A Humanitarian!
September 30, 2008 - 18:35 ET by stratmanDidn't Michelle Obama say that Barack could be shot at a gas station because, you know, he doesn't look like those other guys on dollar bills?
Good enough for me:
I'm with you, Stratman
September 30, 2008 - 18:53 ET by sentforth5Seems to me that osa...obama has a better chance of getting shot and killed before the son of cain would die of cancer or old age.
President Biden!
But it would be an outrage to the commie left to suggest such a thing!
How come no one is talking
September 30, 2008 - 22:31 ET by stratmanHow come no one is talking about Plugs Biden?
He's had TWO surgeries for nearly fatal brain aneurysms. These aneurysms and their resulting surgeries uncontrovertably result in death of brain tissue and removal of brain tissue as well. Biden, in other words, is no longer playing with a full deck (brain mass).
He has been a pathological liar his entire adult life. He confabulates (makes things up). And he has insight into his lying as well - self-admitted in fact.
True, Biden began lying before his surgeries. But it is equally true that the public is unaware of the full extent of Biden's deficits and how they may have worsened over time and his mental faculties will continue to dwindle in the future. Has his full medical record been released? Have his physicians been made available for questioning? Doesn't America deserve to know the full extent of Biden's real neurological deficits and how he is at increased risk of "early" death or disbility? This is expecially critical to know since the babbling idiot known as Nancy Pelosi is only two heartbeats away from the Presidency.
A couple of A-hole doctor's demanded this of McCain in a commercial that MSNBC ran for two days before being pulled finally for its inappropriateness. But, John McCain did make his records and physicians available. (BTW, Obama has not, but that didn't stop the disinformation and fearmongering by those facist, Leftist physicians.)
So, continuing in my humanitarian mode:
I don't think the chances of
September 30, 2008 - 22:36 ET by balboaI don't think the chances of Biden having to step in for Obama are anywhere in the same galaxy as the chances of Palin having to step in for McCain, though, right?
Bal,
September 30, 2008 - 22:41 ET by RESTLESS 1What does it matter? Unqualified is unqualified, right? If she is, then he is. If he isn't then she isn't. Can you at least admit that???
"This
liberal would be all about socialize -- uh, uh, would be about
basically taking over and the government running all of your companies."-Maxine Waters 2008
I don't think he's
September 30, 2008 - 22:46 ET by balboaI don't think he's unqualified; I think he lacks a ton of experience. I think he's capable.
Who are you talking about?
September 30, 2008 - 22:52 ET by RESTLESS 1Biden has 30 or so years of gracing us with his idiocy. If you think either Biden or Obama are "capable", then you must also think that, despite a lack of "tons of experience", that Palin is capable as well. She is at least as intelligent as o or b.
"This
liberal would be all about socialize -- uh, uh, would be about
basically taking over and the government running all of your companies."-Maxine Waters 2008
bal will never admit it
October 1, 2008 - 15:41 ET by Hermanobal will never admit that Palin is at least as qualified as 0bama. Of course, I woud like to see him do it.
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty
"I don't think the
September 30, 2008 - 23:39 ET by stratmanBal:
Let me begin by saying that the public's need to know the entire medical record of a candidate is perverse. I don't agree that the public has a right to know every last centimeter of a candidate. A statement by the candidate's attending physician should suffice. Sarcastically speaking, you would think all the rabid anti-Bush folks would agree by now that anyone can be president - the Dems have positioned Nancy Pelosi to be second in line behind the VP for pete's sake! - so chill out on the medical records issues. Life is a crapshoot, and no one knows when they will die, except those actively performing euthanasia in Oregon. McCain has proven he's a tough bird and Obama could fade in a heartbeat.
In all honesty, putting my physician hat back on, I don't know because I don't know the actual medical record of any of the players. At first blush, Obama would appear to have less risk of morbidity and mortality during the next 8 year span. But I wouldn't bet the farm on it yet.
What I do know of Obama is that he has some relatives that survive to eldery age and others that do not. There is a parental history of cancer, alcoholism and either anger management issues of psychiatric issues. I have no other information about the family. Family history can be very informative about health risk to the patient.
What has been released about Obama is that he is a smoker, unknown pack year history and possibly discontinued, his blood pressure is 90/60 and his pulse rate is 60 beats per minute. He also exercises, up to 3 miles jogging in a day, though no indication of how many days per week and totality of the exercise or it's duration - these parameters matter when determining risk and risk reduction via an instrument like the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score. (Note that some of the necessary data has not been released by Obama to determine his risk nor understand what he is doing to reduce his risk.)
A blood pressure of 90/60 may be wonderful or it might not. Same for a pulse rate of 60. For instance, 90/60 may be normal and appropriate for Obama or it might be a clue towards an improperly acting neuro-hormonal feedback system. It might also mean he is superbly conditioned (doubtful since his activity level is too low) or he is genetically blessed (more likely of these two possibilities). The pulse rate of 60 per minute is similarly perceived. Is he symptomatic? Are there medications altering these parameters. We don't know if he has any medical problems, besides the smoking. Obama has not released his records or made his physician's available for questions.
If you are suspicious or distrustful concerning the health of McCain, then you should be equally as vigilant about Obama and Biden, or any politician who may have or already does have power over your life.
The idiot physicians that fearmongered over McCain's medical history could and should, probably did in fact, know the risks of Melanoma recurrence. But the real issue they bring up is the caustic notion that a history of cancer is still a Scarlet "C", a death sentence, and that those afflicted should be marginalized because of a POSSIBILITY of recurrence, disability and/or death. This is a chapter out of Eugenics and a highly dangerous position to promote, especially revolting because they are physicians, one being a "hospice and palliative medicine" specialist.
This reminds me of the Objectivist that recently said that Down's Syndrome fetuses should be aborted because they are a drain on a Capitalist society.
Can you feel the love, Bal?
Obama The Man, The One, The Target
September 30, 2008 - 18:56 ET by Mike BatesDidn't Michelle Obama say that Barack could be shot at a gas station because, you know, he doesn't look like those other guys on dollar bills?
That's why MaBelle wants to move into a better neighborhood.
Well, They're Moving On Up... To The Communist Side
September 30, 2008 - 22:49 ET by stratmanMy advice to her - try Russia, North Korea, China, Cuba or Venezuela. I'm sure she will be proud for the second time in her adult life with the ideology in one of those places.
Got a deluxe apartment in the sky.
Communism?
September 30, 2008 - 22:55 ET by RHRobinsonMDThat's probably what was so familiar in this little ditty:
http://www.youtube.c...
An armed society is a polite society. Manners are good when one may have to back up his acts with his life.
Robert A. Heinlein
So realistic it's
September 30, 2008 - 23:48 ET by stratmanSo realistic it's spooky.
He's already made his own presidential seal, so why not his own national anthem?
BTW.... MD - Physician or Maryland?
He may be stupid but he
September 30, 2008 - 20:34 ET by cocodrieHe may be stupid but he didn't pick Hillary as vp. She would have kissed him at the inauguration to seal the deal.
LOL
September 30, 2008 - 22:39 ET by stratmanThe speed with which the eevil Hillary would have had dispatched Obama would make The Godfather's Michael Corleone look painstakingly deliberative in killing his brother Fredo.
Yeah, Strat
September 30, 2008 - 22:45 ET by BlondeKinda like Odumbo before he answers any questions....ugh, ugh, ugh.....painstakingly deliberative, LOL.
David Gregory, do you know which damn network you lie for? ~ Uncle Jimbo, @Blackfive
You just reminded me what
September 30, 2008 - 22:58 ET by stratmanYou just reminded me what Loony Tunes character Obama sometimes sounds like: Porky Pig.
Now I'll be waiting for him to stammer out:
No wonder Zer-O-bama talked about lipstick and pigs. He's actually revealing some of his deepest desires.
Strat, Hitlery: "It ain't
September 30, 2008 - 22:49 ET by Trix RabbitStrat,
Hitlery: "It ain't the way I wanted it! I can handle things! I'm smart. Not like everybody says...like dumb...I'm smart and I want respect!"
Liberal: a power worshipper without power. George Orwell
Sounds like VP Palin
September 30, 2008 - 22:20 ET by IamTinmanBy then would have had 4 years of on the job training with one of the best. McCain would have had a fully experienced group of advisors so Palin could smoothly transition into the presidency and then have another 8 years after that.
John McCain likely has a long and fruitful life ahead of him but if something unforeseen happens, along with Governer Palin, there are many terrific young conservative republicans like Bobby Jindal who will help the GOP to return to their core values, not become the dem lite party.
News that you will NEVER
October 1, 2008 - 00:47 ET by jdhawkNews that you will NEVER see in the drive by media:
There is a one-in-four chance that the major news media may not survive the decade!
The longest wait
October 1, 2008 - 04:09 ET by art341The longest wait is for your lover to get divorced. The second longest wait is for her husband to die.
Has anyone calculated the
October 1, 2008 - 08:02 ET by buddycHas anyone calculated the odds that Obama, a black male who took hard drugs (including cocaine) in his 30's will relapse?
An artical that debunks itself
October 1, 2008 - 11:00 ET by CobraManThis is an article that debunks itself. First they claim that McCain has "as much as" a one in four chance of dying during his second term according to an "Atlanta actuarial company," then they quote an actuary from that same company who states: "Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes."
So, AP, you just debunked yourself and don't even realize it!
Obama: My job is above my pay grade
I have no idea who to trust
October 1, 2008 - 15:38 ET by HermanoI have no idea who to trust in this case. After all, Matt Damon said McCain had a 1 in 3 chance of dying before his first term was over. I don't know - maybe I am willing to take a 1 in 4 chance before the end of the second term. Un- F'in-believable!
The Newsbusters Comments Crew: Saving the Environment - One Ribeye at a Time! h/t Dr_Liberty