Five Reasons Obama Will Likely Win in 2012, and Five Reasons He Might Not

Everyone is talking about how badly President Obama is doing in the polls. Remember Harry Reid? Remember how badly he was doing in the polls? Yeah. He got re-elected.

Why will Obama win?

1. People want to like President Obama. Yes, the independents have left him, but they’re fickle pickles. If President Obama starts to make even a lick of sense on a minor issue, they’ll turn back his direction.

2. The Republican primary battle will be bloody and brutal. Every mistake, every tiny flaw, every little misspoken word…they’ll all be on display in the primary and perfect fodder for the general and Democrats.

3. The Lefty Machine is powerful, organized, coordinated, and easily activated. You know that stunning victory in Nevada? Those same union thugs will blackmail their membership, drive them, drag them and watch to make sure they vote in this next election.

4. The Right Machine….well, there isn’t a right machine. Don’t talk to me about the Tea Party movement. I know all about them. And they’re motivated and they’ll vote. But they’re not coordinated (yet). They fight rather than organize. And some ostensible Tea Party organizations (like Tea Party Express) waltz into town and piss off the local Tea Party organizations. In addition, the GOP state organizations generally loathe the Tea Party folks, so there is often division within the state GOP. Nationally? Well, the fundraiser for the RNC went to the NRSC, took the donor list with him, and then publicly talked about the weakness of the RNC. The RGA has been run well, but with all these big organizations trying to undermine Michael Steele (RNC, NRSC, NRCC) they also undermined the legendary Get Out The Vote effort that the RNC can do in the last 72 hours. That problem hurt the GOP in many states that could have been won this year (CO, WA, WV).

5. There is no unifying force on the Right. Anywhere. So far, a cast of has beens and polarizing individuals. There is less baggage on a transatlantic flight that the Republican contenders for President: Mitt Romney (Romneycare), Mike Huckabee (pardon, tax-hiking, folksy populist), Newt Gingrich (exes, impolitic, cross-hairs of Tea Party), Tim Pawlenty (who?), Mitch Daniels (VAT tax, also, who?), Sarah Palin (well, she’s Sarah Palin).

And one for good measure:

The Press. They still slobber. They prefer an incompetent socialist to a Republican anything. They’ll continue to help their superstar. Most are still true believers.

What’s standing in the way of this seemingly insurmountable juggernaut? A few ….states:

1. Michigan

2. Pennsylvania

3. Ohio

4. Indiana

5. Florida

Oh, and West Virginia for good measure.

The President has his work cut out for him. As usual, though, the Republicans will be doing everything in their stupid power to help him. If a Republican wins the Presidency in 2012, I’ll count it as some sort of miracle.

Crossposted at Liberty Pundits