Newsweek's 'Conventional Wisdom' Revels In Imagined Recession Fear

Photo of Ken Shepherd.

You'll have to pardon me for just noticing this. It is after all, only Newsweek.

Of course, as fellow NewsBuster and Business & Media Institute staff writer Jeff Poor notes, it's highly unprofessional and misleading for media outlets to gin up fears of recession this early (emphasis mine).:

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It wasn't good news by any means, but it also wasn't the end of the world.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported January 4 the unemployment rate rose to 5 percent in December, but if you're paying attention to the media coverage, you would think it's time to whip up some shoe leather stew and play "Brother Can You Spare a Dime."

A January 4 Associated Press story by Jeannine Aversa pointed to the job data as one of the "problems in the economy" that has "elevated fears about a recession." But even with all these "problems" - housing woes, the credit crunch, high oil prices, weak job numbers - the criteria of the economy being in a recession still haven't been close to being met.

A recession is a period of general economic decline; specifically, a decline in GDP [gross domestic product] for two or more consecutive quarters.

For the last two quarters, GDP (as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department) has grown at a rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2007 and 4.9 percent in the third quarter - not a sign of a recessionary trend.

Although fourth-quarter GDP numbers for 2007 won't be released until March, they're not necessarily looking to be negative. Economist and "Kudlow & Company" host Larry Kudlow told viewers of CNBC's January 4 "The Call" that GDP will come in at least at 2 percent.

"Our economy can grow at three-and-a-half percent," Kudlow said. "That is its potential. Right now, in the fourth quarter, it's going to grow one percentage point less."

Newsweek, of course, is not an authority on business reporting, but there's little wonder why the liberally-biased magazine would love to gin up fears of an economic downturn in an election year coming out of eight years of a Republican presidency.

Indeed, as BMI director Dan Gainor proved in his classic 2004 study, "One Economy, Two Spins," the media have often put a much more negative spin on economic data occuring during Bush's tenure than analogous economic data during Bill Clinton's adminstration:

Jerry King of ABC’s World News Tonight showed how he handled a positive jobs report. The story is from August 4, 1996 during the
Clinton term when unemployment was at 5.4 percent and 193,000 jobs were created. “Strong economic growth and low unemployment have both parties agreeing we’re in pretty good shape, though each claims it could make things even better.”

That “low unemployment” number was the exact same total reported in September 2004, but with a new spin on the reporting. When ABC did the story, it chose to focus on job creation, not unemployment. On the September 3, 2004 broadcast of ABC’s World News Tonight, Peter Jennings announced: “The government said today that the economy added 144,000 jobs in August. That was better than the previous two months, when job growth essentially stalled. But it fell short of the 200,000 jobs per month that most economists consider the minimum for strong employment growth.”

These two reports show a different ABC standard for whether the economy is “in pretty good shape.”

—Ken Shepherd is Managing Editor of NewsBusters


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The CW on newsweek is...

The CW on newsweek is they have no credibility .

BDS redux

They have to support the story line that millions are in the soup line. It's all Bush's fault. There was an article here yesterday (or so) on the same thing. The lame stream media has figured it out that Iraq is bad for "them" and good for "us" so they've switched to the economy. Funny enough, that IS what will drive the election no matter the situation in Iraq. I just hope that the electorate can figure it out like they have about The Surge before the election.

All the networks (even

All the networks (even local) here in L.A. have jumped on the recession band-wagon since the Iraq one has failed. They are nothing but liars.

a couple things

1. comparing the actual number of jobs created/lost means nothing. the quantity doesn't mean anything really, especially since the economy was at two completely different points. the point of those two news reports is whether the actual employment numbers hit or missed expectations (often that's more important to wall st that the actual quantity of jobs created/lost).

2. for NBers or the media to somehow assign credit for the stregnth of the economy to a president is silly. the performance of the economy comes from so many factors that things like "tax cuts" can't really have a direct affect.

3. for all those who think the media is creating this recession, you need to learn more about the economy. there is a serious risk of recession or a recession-like scenario(loss of jobs, bear market, etc). we'll see if rate cuts can stimulate the economy...

so, when does a news agency

so, when does a news agency report about a recession?

do they point to many signs that says a recession MAY be on it's way?

or, should they wait till a recession is 3-4 months old before saying there is a recession?

Down - Oh, I don't know there were a few more things for Bush!

Newsweek said Down:

George W. Bush -- ... But still has nothing to show for his seven years ...  

Perhaps CW they missed the NY Times, Jan. 5th. Legacy sounding stuff. The UN agrees, Bill Clinton agrees (here's Clinton's legacy on the issue: Too little, too late).

 

Take a read: In Global Battle on AIDS, Bush Creates Legacy